tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492310882851199969.post649779990600448054..comments2024-01-09T15:03:54.986-05:00Comments on Wolf Howling: Iran 7/7 - The Pot Simmers (Updated)GWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05814327154035433443noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492310882851199969.post-32880129482368846292009-07-07T18:18:58.499-04:002009-07-07T18:18:58.499-04:00GW, that helps me a lot. Ever since this situation...GW, that helps me a lot. Ever since this situation with the Iranian election started I have been concerned about the call for support of these protestors. For one, I wasn't sure exactly what the protests were about, other than the ballot count (which we have similarly right here in the USA), and secondly, I have been worried that too much encouragemnet might end up in a huge death toll by giving them false indications of how far our support would go. When the POTUS is closer in ideology to Hugo Chavez than George Washington, our support would most likely go to the mullahs. Furthermore, Stratfor indicated that these folks were merely a highly vocal, but relatively small minority. I wouldn't want to bring any more danger to these brave people than they are already enduring.cdorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13692378691739415168noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492310882851199969.post-69082584403566898272009-07-07T17:20:24.451-04:002009-07-07T17:20:24.451-04:00Thanks for the kind words, CDOR. To put it in a pa...Thanks for the kind words, CDOR. To put it in a paragraph, I wrote at http://wolfhowling.blogspot.com/2009/06/obama-on-iran-broken-moral-compass.html that <br /><br />"During the Presidential campaign, Mousavi, despite having revolutionary credentials exceeding those of Ahmedinejad, advocated real and fundamental reforms that utterly energized the Iranian populace. Iranian specialist Michael Ledeen took note, writing on July 10, two days before the election, that Mousavi had lit a firestorm in Iran by offering reforms, particularly in the area of women's rights, that threatened "the whole structure of the Khomeinist regime . . .""<br /><br />The mullahs that have taken part in running the country are, I think, toast. Iran is still a religious country, though the theocracy has done more for the promotion of secularism and atheism that 100 branch offices of the ACLU could have done in Iran. But that said, the theocrats will go and the clerics will once again take up the school of quietism, using their influence from the bully pulpit while staying out of politics, much as we are seeing in Iraq.<br /><br />The protestors want democracy and they want to be out from under the thumb of the oppressive theocracy. Women want equal rights. Young men don't want to get beaten for talking to a woman in public or holding hands. People don't want to be caned for drinking alcohol. And, of course, they see a corrupt government where the clerics and IRGC get rich while the rank and file suffer ever more. The standard of living in Iran has been generally on a downward slide for three decades. <br /><br />That said, I think Krauthammer was right a few weeks ago. This nascent Iranian revolution has to have a Yeltsin. I do not know if Mousavi could play that role. I think we are very limited to what we can do, but those limited roles could be of paramount importance - 1. Providing communications support to counter the mullahs attempts to jam all communications in the country; and, <br />2. Lead the call for international sanctions to put ever more pressure on the regime.<br />Unfortunately, as I note above, Obama is once more doing the polar opposite.GWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05814327154035433443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492310882851199969.post-26012610372155001732009-07-07T15:15:58.962-04:002009-07-07T15:15:58.962-04:00Wow GW, quite the comprehensive post! Very well do...Wow GW, quite the comprehensive post! Very well done.<br /><br />My question, "Who is Mousavi and why is he preferrable to Ahmadinedjad?"<br /><br />Is your thinking that if the pot boils over, the first thing to go will be the mullahs? Are the protestors yearning for a liberal western democracy or are they just kind of pissed at the world and venting frustration with no direction? Perhaps a more confidant Presidency that actually believes in American values could provide direction for these protestors and take advantage of this turmoil to nudge Iran in the right direction.<br /><br />It is very tricky because we really don't have a feel for the pulse of the country.cdorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13692378691739415168noreply@blogger.com