Judgment To Lead?

Stuttering Baracky - and he stutters a lot today - can't even exercise sound judgment with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight. Asked if he knew in 2007 what he knows now, would he still have been against the surge, he answers that yes, he would.



What kind of a BS answer is that?

After stuttering for 30 seconds, he says he was correct to vote against the surge because he disagreed with the Bush Administration. That is meaningless. He came out against the surge in 2007 because he claimed it would backfire, worsening security. There is no logic whatsoever to his answer, though he tries to leave the impression that his vote was based on some higher ethical principle. This guy is the penultimate con-man.

There is much, much more.

There is an additional interview on ABC and Nightline still to come, though not yet available. There is this report in advance of the showing of the Nightline interview from Marc Ambinder blogging at the Atlantic (H/T Gateway Pundit):

Sen. Barack Obama said it was "fair" to notice that he did not anticipate that the surge of U.S. troops into Iraq would be coincident with the so-called Sunni Awakening and the decisions of Shia militias to reduce their footprints, the combination of which led to measurable declines in violence.

In an interview with ABC's Terry Moran, Obama said that he "did not anticipate, and I think that this is a fair characterization, the convergence of not only the surge but the Sunni awakening in which a whole host of Sunni tribal leaders decided that they had had enough with Al Qaeda, in the Shii’a community the militias standing down to some degrees. So what you had is a combination of political factors inside of Iraq that then came right at the same time as terrific work by our troops. Had those political factors not occurred, I think that my assessment would have been correct."

This is a complete twisting and rewrite of history.

The Sunni Awakening Movement was well underway by September 2006 - four months before the surge was announced and Obama took his stand against it. And it was a movement that was begun by the U.S. forces soliciting a partnership. Here is a short history of the movement from the Washington Post:

In November 2005, American commanders held a breakthrough meeting with top Sunni chiefs in Ramadi, hoping to lure them away from the insurgents' fold. The sheiks responded positively, promising cooperation and men for a police force that was then virtually nonexistent.

But in January 2006 a suicide bomber attacked a police recruiting drive, killing 70 people. Insurgents killed at least four sheiks for cooperating with the Americans, and many others fled.

The killings left the effort in limbo, until a turning point; insurgents killed a prominent sheik last year and refused to let family members bury the body for four days, enraging Sunni tribesmen, said U.S. Lt. Col. Miciotto Johnson, who heads the 1st Battalion, 77th Armored Regiment and visits al-Rishawi frequently in western Ramadi.

Al-Rishawi, whose father and three brothers were killed by al-Qaida assassins, said insurgents were "killing innocent people, anyone suspected of opposing them. They brought us nothing but destruction and we finally said, enough is enough."

Al-Rishawi founded the Anbar Salvation Council in September [2006] with dozens of Sunni tribes. Many of the new newly friendly leaders are believed to have at least tacitly supported the insurgency in the past, though al-Rishawi said he never did. . . .

Read the entire article. [emphasis added]

How could Obama claim that he did not anticipate something that was already well known and in full swing by the time the surge was announced in January, 2007? And he damn well knew about by July, 2007 when he was calling for a withdraw from Iraq, explicitly saying he did not care if doing so would lead to genocide.

As to Sadr, Obama's claim is ridiculous. Sadr's forces had twice been mauled by the U.S. and when the U.S. announced the surge, Sadr's forces were dead in the cross-hairs. That was WHY Sadr ordered a pull back - to preserve his Mahdi Army against U.S. forces. Does Obama lack the judgment to see the relationship between cause and effect?

And Obama fails to even acknowledge the role Iran has played. Looking at Obama objectively, one wonders if he believes reality is whatever he wants it be.

To continue:

Moran noted that Obama had claimed that the surge "would not make a significant dent in the violence."

Responded Obama: "In the violence in Iraq overall, right. So the point that I was making at the time was that the political dynamic was the driving force between that sectarian violence. And we could try to keep a lid on it, but if these underlining dynamic continued to bubble up and explode the way they were, then we would be in a difficult situation. I am glad that in fact those political dynamic shifted at the same time that our troops did outstanding work."

"But," asked Moran,"if the country had pursued your policy of withdrawing in the face of this horrific violence, what do you think Iraq would look like now?"

Obama said it would be hard to speculate. . . .

Let me help Mr. Obama. Speculation is guessing among equally possible conclusions. One speculates when there are insufficient facts to make a reasonable projection. But if the facts clearly preponderate in one direction, you are making reasonable estimates. So . . .

In 2007, Iran was deeply involved in dominating the Shia south and al Qaeda had a stranglehold on the Sunni population that the U.S. - supported by and supporting the Awakening movements - was just starting to unravel. Had we drawn back from that, Iraq today would be divided between al Qaeda, Iran and possibly Turkey. Further, al Qaeda, which is now suffering throughout the Middle East because of its complete failure in Iraq, would be in a far stronger position internationally and global Sunni terrorism would not be falling.

See, no speculation needed.

Obama also told Moran that there were circumstances under which he could revise his instruction to U.S. generals to begin withdrawing combat brigades at the pace of one-to-two per month.

"I've always reserved the right, uh, to say---let's say that ethnic, uh, ethnic fighting broke out once again---I've reserved the right to say---I don't--I'm not going to stand idly by if genocide is occurring. . . .

Is there anything that Obama will not lie about? Obama specifically justified surrendering in Iraq irrespective of whether it would lead to genocide. Let's take a trip down memory lane to July 20, 2007:

Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama said Thursday the United States cannot use its military to solve humanitarian problems and that preventing a potential genocide in Iraq isn’t a good enough reason to keep U.S. forces there.

“Well, look, if that’s the criteria by which we are making decisions on the deployment of U.S. forces, then by that argument you would have 300,000 troops in the Congo right now — where millions have been slaughtered as a consequence of ethnic strife — which we haven’t done,” Obama said in an interview with The Associated Press.

“We would be deploying unilaterally and occupying the Sudan, which we haven’t done. Those of us who care about Darfur don’t think it would be a good idea,” he said. Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois, said it’s likely there would be increased bloodshed if U.S. forces left Iraq. . . .

Read the entire article. This is a man willing to say anything to get elected. He is as intellectually a dishonest person as I can ever recall taking the public stage - and that includes the last Democrat to hold the Presidency. Indeed, Obama puts slick Willie to shame.

Bottom line - Obama's judgment is not just suspect, but nearly nonexistent. He may have some small iota of judgement to lead, but it is utterly clear that it would be in a direction no one would want to follow.

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Iranian Proxy Acts of War

Iran's proxy war in Iraq is now aimed at ending the Awakening movements that threaten the theocracy's efforts to expand its influence in Iraq.










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Iran, long term, poses the most significant threat to Iraq. Its training and funding of proxies in Iraq is beyond dispute. Last week, the Governor of Basra, accused Iran of being behind plans to assassinate he and his brother. According to a recent report, Iran is conducting a surge of its own, significantly increasing its Qods Force infiltration into Iraq. According to "Baghdad's chief intelligence officer said Iran is working to destroy the Awakening movements" that have been so important to the gains in stability. This from the Long War Journal:

. . . The latest charge leveled against Iran is that Qods Force, the special operations branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, is working to destroy the Awakening movements that oppose al Qaeda and Shia terrorist groups. Mohammed Abdullah Shahwani, the director of the Iraqi National Intelligence Service, accused Iran of sabotaging the Awakening, or Sahwa, movements. The Awakening movement and associated Sons of Iraq (formerly the Concerned Local Citizens) movements have been instrumental in securing vast regions of Iraq during the past year.

"We have information confirming that Iranian secret services have sent agents to sabotage the Sahwa experience in Iraq," Shahwani said in a press release issued today. Shahwani is a Kurd who served as a brigadier general in a Republican Guard unit under the regime of Saddam Hussein. Shahwani later organized efforts to overthrow Saddam Hussein.

. . . The US has . . . linked Hezbollah to the formation of the Special Groups after the capture of a senior Hezbollah/Qods Force officer in Iraq in early 2007.

Both the Mahdi Army and the offshoot Special Groups cells have clashed with Shia members of the Awakening and Sons of Iraq movements. Special Groups cells have attack Awakening and Sons of Iraq checkpoints and murder and kidnapped members. The Mahdi Army has waged an aggressive campaign to prevent the formation of Awakening movements.

While Iraqi intelligence pointed the finger at Iran for attacking the Awakening and Sons of Iraq movements, US and Iraqi forces continue to target the Special Groups cells. Since Sadr declared the cease-fire on Feb. 22, there have been 11 raids against the Special Groups cells.

The most significant raid netted a yet-to-be-named senior Special Groups commander. Coalition forces captured a senior regional Special Groups finance facilitator and six associates during a raid in Suwayrah on Feb. 25. "The targeted individual was reportedly a finance leader for Iranian-affiliated Special Groups criminals and militias in Iraq’s southern provinces to include Najaf, Karbala, Babil, Wasit and Qadisiyah," Multinational Forces Iraq noted in a press release.

The Special Groups financier also doubled as "a mortar and rocket specialist who had trained in Iran." He served as a weapons trainer who conducted attacks with the deadly, armor-piercing explosively formed penetrator mines against Coalition and Iraqi troops.

Multinational Forces Iraq began targeting Special Groups weapons trainers during the fall of 2007 after knowledge of the Shia terror cells expanded. "Iran has adopted a 'train the trainer' model to facilitate attacks in Iraq," a senior US military officer serving in Iraq told who wishes to remain anonymous told The Long War Journal. Weapons trainers are instructed by the Iranian military, and then sent into Iraq to conduct attacks and disseminate knowledge to their cells. . . .

Read the entire article. It is clear that the U.S. and Iraq's government are attempting to contain Iran's deadly meddling without resort to direct attacks on training and command facilities on Iranian soil. At this point, I question whether such a policy is not counterproductive, encouraging Iran to further acts of aggression? Iran's theocracy has been at war with the U.S. since its inception, and indeed, as Sec of Def Gates said recently, "everywhere you turn, it is the policy of Iran to foment instability and chaos, no matter the strategic value or cost in the blood of innocents - Christians, Jews and Muslims alike." Iran will not stop their aggression until they are forcibly stopped.

Update: Neoneocon has a very good post comparing and contrasting Obama's sound tough carry a stack of olive branchs approach with McCain's clear big stick approach.

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In Iraq, Al Qaeda Documents Show Crisis & Collapse

Documents captured during raids in Iraq show al Qaeda in "total collapse" in some areas and detail the combined effects of the surge and the Anbar Awakening. Surprisingly, the authors do not attribute their defeat in any way to the Democratic victory in 2006, nor do they credit the creation of the Anbar Awakening to the same.


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This today from the Times discussing the contents of al Qaeda documents found by the military during the conduct of operations in Iraq:

Al-Qaeda in Iraq faces an “extraordinary crisis”. Last year's mass defection of ordinary Sunnis from al-Qaeda to the US military “created panic, fear and the unwillingness to fight”. The terrorist group's security structure suffered “total collapse”.

These are the words not of al-Qaeda's enemies but of one of its own leaders in Anbar province — once the group's stronghold. They were set down last summer in a 39-page letter seized during a US raid on an al-Qaeda base near Samarra in November.

The US military released extracts from that letter yesterday along with a second seized in another November raid that is almost as startling.

That second document is a bitter 16-page testament written last October by a local al-Qaeda leader near Balad, north of Baghdad. “I am Abu-Tariq, emir of the al-Layin and al-Mashahdah sector,” the author begins. He goes on to describe how his force of 600 shrank to fewer than 20.

. . . Assuming the two documents are authentic — and the US military insists that they are — they provide a rare insight into an organisation thrown into turmoil by the rise of the Awakening movement. More than 80,000 Sunnis have joined the tribal groups of “concerned local citizens” [CLCs] that have helped to eject al-Qaeda from swaths of western and northern Iraq, including much of Baghdad.

US intelligence officials cautioned, however, that the documents were snapshots of two small areas and that al-Qaeda was far from a spent force.

. . . The Anbar letter conceded that the “crusaders” — Americans — had gained the upper hand by persuading ordinary Sunnis that al-Qaeda was responsible for their suffering and by exploiting their poverty to entice them into the security forces. Al-Qaeda's “Islamic State of Iraq is faced with an extraordinary crisis, especially in al-Anbar”, the unnamed emir admitted.

In an apparent reference to al-Qaeda's brutal tactics, he said of the Americans and their Sunni allies: “We helped them to unite against us . . . The Americans and the apostates launched their campaigns against us and we found ourselves in a circle not being able to move, organise or conduct our operations.”

He said of the loss of Anbar province: “This created weakness and psychological defeat. This also created panic, fear and the unwillingness to fight. The morale of the fighters went down . . . There was a total collapse in the security structure of the organisation.” The emir complained that the supply of foreign fighters had dwindled and that they found it increasingly hard to operate inside Iraq because they could not blend in. Foreign suicide bombers determined to kill “not less than 20 or 30 infidels” grew disillusioned because they were kept hanging about and only given small operations. Some gave up and went home.

Finally the emir recommended rewards for killing apostates, using doctors to kill infidels and offering gifts to tribal leaders. He said al-Qaeda's fighters should be sent to more promising areas such as Diyala province or Baghdad — which is exactly what happened.

Rear-Admiral Gregory Smith, the US military spokesman in Baghdad, called Abu-Tariq's testament a “woe-is-me kind of document”. It calls the Sunnis who switched sides a “cancer in the body of al-Jihad movement”, and declares: “We should have no mercy on them.”

. . . Most of the first battalion's fighters “betrayed us and joined al-Sahwah [the Awakening]”, he says. The leader of the second ran away and all but two of its 300 fighters joined the Awakening. The activities of the third were “frozen due to their present conditions”. Of the fourth he writes: “Most of its members are scoundrels, sectarians, non-believers”.

He lists 38 people still working for him but beside five names he has written comments like “We have not seen him for twenty days” or “left us a week ago”. He concludes, wistfully: “And that is the number of fighters left in my sector.”

Extracts from letters

. . . Unnamed emir, Anbar province

“The Islamic State of Iraq [al-Qaeda] is faced with an extraordinary crisis, especially in al-Anbar province. Al-Qaeda’s expulsion from Anbar created weakness and psychological defeat. This also created panic, fear and the unwillingness to fight.

“The morale of the fighters went down and they wanted to be transferred to administrative positions rather than be fighters. There was a total collapse in the security structure of the organisation.”

Read the entire article.

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Iraq - War, Peace, the Economy, & Progress

There is much to report on Iraq, though none of it appears in the MSM. Below is a rollup of recent news of the war, the continuing gains in security, and economic gains in Iraq.





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There is little direct reporting in the MSM from Iraq these days. Fighting does go on, with Mosul being the main battleground today. This from the Long War Journal:

Al Qaeda is still is able to operate in Mosul, and maintains its only established supply line to Syria in the Mosul region, according to a December 2007 assessment of the terror group's capabilities by Multinational Forces Iraq. "In ... Mosul and the rest of Ninewa province we still have a very tough fight to go," said Major General Mark Hertling, the commander of Multinational Division North said in a press briefing on Jan. 22, just one day prior to a major attack in the city.

. . . "We have formed an operations centre in Ninewa (province) for a final war against Al-Qaeda and the remnants of the former (Saddam Hussein) regime," Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki said on Jan. 25. "Today our forces are moving towards Mosul. What we have planned in Ninewa will be final. It will be a decisive battle." . .

Read the article. What is heartening about this particular battle is the degree to which it is being led and fought by Iraqi forces. As Bill Rogio notes, "This is a capacity that was nearly nonexistent just one year ago when the surge began . . ."

(Update): Al Qaeda is still able to pull off the occasional suicide bombing, the most recent using tactics utterly inhumane and despicable. Al Qaeda has been blamed for tricking two women afflicted with Down's Syndrome into becoming human bombs:

Two women suicide bombers who have killed nearly 80 people in Baghdad were Down's Syndrome victims exploited by al Qaida.

The explosives were detonated by remote control in a co-ordinated attack after the women walked into separate crowded markets, said the chief Iraqi military spokesman in Baghdad General Qassim al-Moussawi.

Other officials said the women were apparently unaware of what they were doing in what could be a new method by suspected Sunni insurgents to subvert toughened security measures. . .

Read the article. (H/T Jawa Report) Why is it that I expect that this will make it into the arguments posed by our far left as to why we need to surrender in Iraq?

Elsewhere in Iraq, the Pax American is taking hold. Violence continues to fall. The "January 2008 figure" for Iraqi civilian deaths "was more than 76 percent lower than the 1,971 civilians killed in January 2007 when Iraq was on the brink of sectarian civil war." "As the security situation has improved in the southern belts of Baghdad, coalition officials find themselves more involved with building local governance capacity and creating jobs." Michael Yon recently posted from his embed with the 1-4 Cav in a mixed Sunni-Shia neighborhood in the south of Baghdad:

. . . The 1-4 CAV has not been attacked since 9 September 2007. This is incredible, considering that their AO had been one of the worst battlegrounds in Iraq. I remember my first embed with 1-4 CAV in late March 2007. As soon as I arrived, I went out on a raid; the next day we were in a firefight. But even then, there were glints of hope. Now it’s nothing but tea and progress.

. . . There is so much cooperation between the 1-4 CAV soldiers and their Iraqi neighbors, both Sunni and Shia, it seems surreal. Lieutenant Colonel James Crider, commander of the 1-4 CAV, told me the story of one local bad guy who had been detained but was released, only to return to the neighborhood. Within a day, eleven Iraqis had either called in to 1-4 CAVs tip line, or stopped soldiers on the streets to report the bad guy’s presence. Incidents like this explain why Al Qaeda is having a hard time trying to re-germinate here.

Read the entire article. And, via Political Insecurity, there is this post from Michael Totten:

At the end of 2006 there were 3,000 Marines in Fallujah. Despite what you might expect during a surge of troops to Iraq, that number has been reduced by 90 percent. All Iraqi Army soldiers have likewise redeployed from the city. A skeleton crew of a mere 250 Marines is all that remains as the United States wraps up its final mission in what was once Iraq's most violent city.

“The Iraqi Police could almost take over now,” Second Lieutenant Gary Laughlin told me. “Most logistics problems are slowly being resolved. My platoon will probably be the last one out here in the Jolan neighborhood.” . . .

One of the major turning points in Iraq came with the Anbar Awakening and the creation of the Concerned Local Citizens Brigades to patrol their neighborhoods. The number of people involved in the CLCB has grown to 80,000, and are made up of 80 percent are Sunni and 20 percent Shiite. They have been paid $300 a month by the U.S.. As the program looks to conclude, the question has been whether these individuals would be absorbed into the security apparatus. According to Military spokesman Rear Admiral Gregory Smith, some 20% of these individuals have requested to join either the police or the military, and about half, or 9,000 have now been screened and are either undergoing training or on the list to enter training. The screening process is ongoing for the other 9,000.

With the Pax Americana descending upon Iraq comes the ability to rebuild infrastructure and the economy. The Times reports:

Oil production in Iraq is at its highest level since the US-led invasion of 2003, reaching 2.4 million barrels a day, thanks largely to improved security measures in the north.

The country’s Oil Ministry will shortly invite international oil companies to bid for contracts to help Iraq to boost output at its investment-starved "super-giant" oilfields. Production is expected to pass the prewar level of 2.6 million barrels by the end of the year, and Hussain al-Shahristani, the Iraqi Oil Minister, told The Times that he expected production to reach six million barrels a day within four years.

The International Monetary Fund predicts that Iraq’s economy, boosted by rising oil revenues, will grow by more than 7 per cent this year. . .

Read the article. If you want to beat the recession and take part in a dynamic economy, it would seem that you need to move to Baghdad.

Probably the best sign of all in terms of anecdotal evidence of the peace descending on Iraq comes from Iraqi Pundit:

Those who believe fearful Iraqis have locked themselves in, and are barely surviving a civil war might be surprised to learn that my fellow countrymen have managed to blend the newest technology with dark-edge humour. They are using the novelty of YouTube as a vehicle for expression and entertainment, mocking Iraq's firebrand buffoons and having a little fun at the expense of Western soldiers.

Iraqis have been posting clips on the popular Internet video site showing male U.S. soldiers dancing good-naturedly if clumsily with their Iraqi counterparts or with people in the streets. "One hilarious minute-long segment captures an American military policeman, complete with flak jacket and weapon, spinning round and round while a group of Iraqi policemen cheer him on," says AFP.

To the animation taken from the film Happy Feet, Moktada Al Sadr "is portrayed as the 'chief' penguin who dances while his follower penguins shout his name. The over-dubbed Arabic music is taken from a rally held by the militia and Sadr's supporters." . . .

Read the entire post here.

Not all reports about Iraq are good – or accurate. For those types of reports, we turn to America’s MSM and, today, the Washington Post. Dana Priest of WaPo tells the tragic tale of soldiers committing suicide in 2007, laying the tragedy on the stress of the wars. And she tells us that this number of soldier suicides in 2007 is the largest in any single year. Gateway Pundit tells us what Dana Priest and WaPo do not. The suicide rate for military personnel is the same as if not lower than that for the general population, and indeed, the suicide rate among our soldiers has been significantly lower during the war years of the Bush presidency than it was under the Clinton presidency. What a sorry lot they are at WaPo.

The reality is that Iraq remains a place where peace and democracy will only take permanent hold through long term vigilance and bravery by those utterly determined to succeed. Big problems loom on the horizon. The two biggest threats to Iraq now are Kurdish separatism and Iranian interference. I blog on the former separately today.

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