Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts

Thursday, August 22, 2013

The Obama Economy By The Numbers

From Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse blog, via American Digest:

#1 When Barack Obama entered the White House, 60.6 percent of working age Americans had a job.  Today, only 58.7 percent of working age Americans have a job.
#2 Since Obama has been president, seven out of every eight jobsthat have been "created" in the U.S. economy have been part-time jobs.
#3 The number of full-time workers in the United States is still nearly 6 million below the old record that was set back in 2007.
#4 It is hard to believe, but an astounding 53 percent of all American workers now make less than $30,000 a year.
#5 40 percent of all workers in the United States actually make less than what a full-time minimum wage worker made back in 1968.
#6 When the Obama era began, the average duration of unemployment in this country was 19.8 weeks.  Today, it is 36.6 weeks.
#7 During the first four years of Obama, the number of Americans "not in the labor force" soared by an astounding 8,332,000.  That far exceeds any previous four year total.
#8 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the middle class is taking home a smaller share of the overall income pie than has ever been recorded before.
#9 When Obama was elected, the homeownership rate in the United States was 67.5 percent.  Today, it is 65.0 percent.  That is the lowest that it has been in 18 years.
#10 When Obama entered the White House, the mortgage delinquency rate was 7.85 percent.  Today, it is 9.72 percent.
#11 In 2008, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 268 billion dollars.  Last year, it was 315 billion dollars.
#12 When Obama first became president, 12.5 million Americans had manufacturing jobs.  Today, only 11.9 million Americans have manufacturing jobs.
#13 Median household income in America has fallen for four consecutive years.  Overall, it has declined by over $4000 during that time span.
#14 The poverty rate has shot up to 16.1 percent.  That is actually higher than when the War on Poverty began in 1965.
#15 During Obama's first term, the number of Americans on food stamps increased by an average of about 11,000 per day.
#16 When Barack Obama entered the White House, there were about 32 million Americans on food stamps.  Today, there are more than 47 million Americans on food stamps.
#17 At this point, more than a million public school students in the United States are homeless.  This is the first time that has ever happened in our history.  That number has risen by 57 percent since the 2006-2007 school year.
#18 When Barack Obama took office, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was $1.85.  Today, it is $3.53.
#19 Electricity bills in the United States have risen faster than the overall rate of inflation for five years in a row.
#20 Health insurance costs have risen by 29 percent since Barack Obama became president, and Obamacare is going to make things far worse.
#21 The United States has fallen in the global economic competitiveness rankings compiled by the World Economic Forum for four years in a row.
#22 According to economist Tim Kane, the following is how the number of startup jobs per 1000 Americans breaks down by presidential administration...
Bush Sr.: 11.3
Clinton: 11.2
Bush Jr.: 10.8
Obama: 7.8
#23 In 2008, that total amount of student loan debt in this country was 440 billion dollars.  At this point, it has shot up to about a trillion dollars.
#24 According to one recent survey, 76 percent of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.
#25 During Obama's first term, the number of Americans collecting federal disability insurance rose by more than 18 percent.
#26 The total amount of money that the federal government gives directly to the American people has grown by 32 percent since Barack Obama became president.
#27 According to the Survey of Income and Program Participation conducted by the U.S. Census, well over 100 million Americans are enrolled in at least one welfare program run by the federal government.
#28 As I wrote about the other day, American households are now receiving more money directly from the federal government than they are paying to the government in taxes.
#29 Under Barack Obama, the velocity of money (a very important indicator of economic health) has plunged to a post-World War II low.
#30 At the end of 2008, the Federal Reserve held $475.9 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds.  Today, Fed holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have skyrocketed past the 2 trillion dollar mark.
#31 When Barack Obama was first elected, the U.S. debt to GDP ratio was under 70 percent.  Today, it is up to 101 percent.
#32 During Obama's first term, the federal government accumulated more new debt than it did under the first 42 U.S presidents combined.
#33 When you break it down, the amount of new debt accumulated by the U.S. government during Obama's first term comes to approximately$50,521 for every single household in the United States.  Are you able to pay your share?

When I hear Obama or any on the left talk about championing the "middle class," at this point I become near homicidal.  The low information voters who put this man back into office need to be given a choice - get informed or get sterilized.







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Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Economics & Race, Tragedy & Travesty

A juxtaposition of three stories tells a lot about the state of our nation. Our economy is fragile. Our GDP declined in the 4th Quarter and our economy is facing yet more headwinds in the future. The sector hurt the worst by Obama are his most loyal constituents - blacks. And lastly, is California a cautionary tale for the rest of the U.S., or is it a blueprint for our future.

Our nation's economy actually contracted .1% during the fourth quarter of last year according to the preliminary report issued by the Commerce Dept. Hot Air does a good analysis of the numbers. This may well be anomalous, associated with a quarterly drop in government spending and the reduction in inventories, but it still shows just how fragile our economy is going into Obama's second term. Tthat despite four years of massively increased government spending and historically low interest rates. And on the horizon are tax increases already passed that will punish the job creators and hurt capital formation. There are all the taxes and expenses associated with Obamacare that will begin kicking in as 2014 approaches. And then of course there is the tsunami of new regulations expected in Obama's second term. A portion of that tsunami will be new EPA regulations further expanding Obama's war on energy sector, something Obama all but promised during his second inaugural speech. The best case scenario is four years of very sluggish growth and little if any job creation.

The second story, via Gateway Pundit, is NAACP President Ben Jealous who, while appearing on Meet The Press last Sunday, made the admission that blacks are doing "far worse" under Obama. This should come as a surprise to no one. Blacks are loyal to Obama and the left, but that loyalty is a one way street. Blacks identify with Obama as black. The true irony is that they don't realize that his skin color is, well, only skin deep. It is meaningless to his identity as a highly ideological leftist. And with that as his motivating force, blacks run a distant second to moneyed interests - i.e, public sector unions - and pathways to greater power - i.e., the green agenda.

Lastly, there is a wholly depressing column from V.D. Hanson at PJM, wherein he gives a eulogy for his state, California, a state sinking under decades of left wing political experimentation that are driving out the productive middle class in droves. In assessing the cause, he writes:

California has changed not due to race but due to culture, most prominently because the recent generation of immigrants from Latin America did not — as in the past, for the most part — come legally in manageable numbers and integrate under the host’s assimilationist paradigm. Instead, in the last three decades huge arrivals of illegal aliens from Mexico and Latin America saw Democrats as the party of multiculturalism, separatism, entitlements, open borders, non-enforcement of immigration laws, and eventually plentiful state employment.

Given the numbers, the multicultural paradigm of the salad bowl that focused on “diversity” rather than unity, and the massive new government assistance, how could the old American tonic of assimilation, intermarriage, and integration keep up with the new influxes? It could not.

These three stories demonstrate the insanity that is America's politics today. Obama proved in his first four years that he wasn't qualified to run a lemonade stand, yet he gets reelected. Over 90% of blacks, the people who have as a group suffered the most under Obama, nonetheless pull the lever for him. The left wins the Hispanic vote by campaigning against the values and economics that made our country great. It is a devil's pact destined by simple math to end very badly. And yet, the left is the dominant force in politics today.

Just as V. D. Hanson sees the future as exceedingly bleak for his state, I see the future exceedingly bleak for our nation. I cannot see our economy recovering. And until Conservatives are able to break the left's stranglehold on black and Hispanic voters, there is simply no way we are going to win a large enough majority to change our nation's economic and cultural trajectory. Given objective reality, we should be able to do this on the basis of conservative principles, but I don't see anyone on the right making a serious attempt to do so. It is both tragedy and travesty.







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Saturday, January 7, 2012

Stossel: Our Economic Situation In Simple English



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Monday, June 8, 2009

Of Villains, The Economy, & On-Rushing Trains


That picture about sums up the state of our nation. Put Obama, Pelosi, and Reid in place of the villain. Sub our economy for the damsel in distress. Consider the on-rushing train to be our massive debt, massive borrowing, declining GDP, unemployment, inflation, and Obama's war on business. And quite literally on the heels of those are Obama's massive spending plans that have yet to hit, including cap and trade and socialized medicine. Tack on as the caboose the social security and medicare time bombs waiting in the wings for their cue to take center stage. And all of that does not even consider yet another seeming certainty - a coming massive jump in fuel prices brought on by Obama's war on fossil fuels and his backsliding on promises to allow us to exploit our natural resources and to begin building nuclear plants again. If you are not worried sick about what Obama is doing to our economy, then you are simply not paying attention.

The only thing that does not appear in the above picture is the MSM. The MSM, our supposed watchdog, are asking none of the hard questions. In the past week, for example, instead of asking about the ramifications of Obama's plans to tack yet even more massive spending and borrowing on top of our teetering economy, we have the editor of Newsweek and Chris Matthews speculating on whether Obama is actually a deity. We have masses of people going into unemployment, and instead of stories about how the Obama projections of unemployment were grotesquely off - or how the stimulus isn't stimulating - we instead are treated to stories of how our modern day Marie Antoinette has stayed behind in Paris to enjoy a shopping day at "Bonpoint, a children's clothing store favored by wealthy Parisians and international jet-setters like Sofia Coppola. . . ." The fact that the decision to do that means another massive taxpayer expense - as you can bet they aren't flying home coach - doesn't make it into the story. Let us eat stimulus, eh?

Update: I stand corrected. The AP actually came out with an article today, noting public dissatisfaction with a stimulus bill that isin't stimulating, going so far as to state "Obama Repackages Stimulus Plans With Old Promises."

Interestingly enough, even with this unprecedented sychophancy from the MSM, our Emperor's lack of clothing is nonetheless becoming apparent to the MSM-fed electorate. Recent Gallup polls show the the President finally in the negatives, with 48% to 46% disapproving of how he is handling the economy and 51% to 45% disapproving of the massive federal spending.

Remember when the economy started into its tailspin. The causes were the housing bubble brought about by government enforced lowering of lending standards in the mortgage industry, an utterly broken bond rating system, and mark to market accounting rules. Those all led to massive secondary effects, including the catastrophic failure of derivative securities that were, ironically enough, designed to spread risk. Add to that Niall Ferguson's identification of two prime drivers - improper regulation of bank capitalization and a mistake by the Fed in its control of interest rates.

What if any of those things has Obama addressed? None. Zero. Zip. Nada.

To the contrary, Obama has used the crisis as Keynesian bonanza - and with little or no return to show for it except a national debt that is sufficiently large that we now have to seriously worry about economy crippling secondary effects. No need to take my word for it - take Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's. This from Mr. Bernanke, via Powerline:

The administration recently submitted a proposed budget that projects the federal deficit to reach about $1.8 trillion this fiscal year before declining to 1.3 trillion in 2010 and roughly $900 billion in 2011.

As a consequence of this elevated level of borrowing, the ratio of federal debt held by the public, the nominal GDP, is likely to move up from about 40 percent before the onset of the financial crisis to about 70 percent in 2011. These developments will leave the debt-to-GDP ratio at its highest level since the early 1950s, the years following the massive debt buildup during World War II.

[E]ven as we take steps to address the recession and threats to financial stability, maintaining the confidence of the financial markets requires that we, as a nation, begin planning now for the restoration of fiscal balance. Prompt attention to questions of fiscal sustainability is particularly critical because of the coming budgetary and economic challenges associated with the retirement of the baby boom generation and continued increases in medical costs. ... With the ratio of debt to GDP already elevated, we will not be able to continue borrowing indefinitely to meet these demands.

In particular, over the longer term, achieving fiscal sustainability -- defined, for example, as a situation in which the ratios of government debt and interest payments to GDP are stable or declining, and tax rates are not so high as to impede economic growth -- requires that spending and budget deficits be well controlled.

If your unsure of the economist-esse there, what that means is that we need to get debt under control or face massive inflation and/or massive tax increases - if not both. As Bernanke added:

And at some point, you'll hit a point where you'll have to have both very draconian cuts and very large tax increases, which is not something we want. So in order to avoid that outcome down the road, we need to begin now to plan how we're going to get the fiscal situation into a better balance in the medium term. ...:

Have you seen any indication at all that Obama has taken heed of those words? Indeed, to the contrary, to add the coup de grâce to the economy, there are Obama's plans to add what amounts to a massive regressive tax on the economy with cap and trade and to add to the mountain of debt with socialized medicine. He has done exactly nothing to stimulate the only engine of our economy - business. There is no fiscal restraint. There are no questions being asked. But the freight train can clearly be heard in the distance.

The last time our government tried to lift us out of an economic crisis of this proportion with massive spending was during the depression, and it didn't work then either. And unlike FDR, we have no WWII waiting in the wings to finally pull us out of this ever deepening economic crisis.

Instead of stimulating the private sector by reducing an already confiscatory corporate tax and providing tax breaks to the actual tax payers - two acts which have proven effective every time they have been tried - Obama has borrowed and spent us into penury. It was Obama who told us that if we just gave him what we wanted, then unemployment wouldn't rise over 8%. Well . . .



Unemployment is rising - now to 9.4% - far beyond where Obama promised us if we would just pass his stimulus package in 48 hours without reading it. And indeed, just today, Obama announced plans to "create 600,000" jobs by speeding up stimulus spending. That may sound nice, but we are obviously losing jobs exponentially faster than the stimulus is creating them and, most importantly, none of these stimulus jobs come with any type of permenance. These aren't private sector jobs where you invest in an employee expecting that the employee will help you become more profitable long-term. The stimulus jobs aren't permenant. They are jobs to do a certain function that ends at one of two points - when the particular task ends or the public funding ends. It is smoke and mirrors of the worst kind. Indeed, no one more accurately sums up this insanity than Mark Steyn in his article of two weeks ago, What Are We Stimulating. May the funds be with you indeed. [Update: As pointed out by ex-dissident in the comments, to add to that, do see Michelle Malkin's post on the topic of 600,000 new jobs. It's an eye opener.]

Meanwhile, in the real world of business, the U.S. has the second highest corporate tax rates in the Western world. Its not confiscatory enough for Obama, apparently. Several days ago, there were the comments from the Microsoft CEO Steven Balmer that, if Obama in fact gets his plans through to tax overseas profits under the rubric of "closing a loophole," the CEO would move many of its employees overseas. Perhaps Obama should consult Maryland as to the effective tax rate on millionaires who decide they don't want to pay confiscatory taxes. That tax rate is zero, regardless of what the tax code may say.

Then there is Obama's class warrior plan to set limits on payments to private sector employees in the banking and financial industries - even businesses that have not accepted a dime of bailout money. This is the socialist / leftist solution to all things - more regulation. Bottom line, market forces will take care of private sector compensation if it does not make economic sense. It happens when poorly run businesses fail. The government's plan to control compensation will drive the best and brightest into the overseas competitors of our financial sector or out of the financial sector entirely. We will see a wilting of this key area of our economy. Oh, and by the way, its been done before. The year, 1931. As Villagers With Torches points out, it accomplished absolutely nothing in terms of lifting us out of the depression.

And then to top off all of the economic good news, we learned a few days ago that Obama is relying on a 31 year old grossly unqualified political appointee to drive the government's programs as regards GM and Chrysler. Is it any wonder that we soon thereafter find out that the Chrysler-Fiat deal was foisted on Chrysler with no real knowledge or investigation of Fiat? Indeed, this has all the earmarks of a superficially "good idea" dreamed up by a bunch of amateurs who have then pushed it through without bothering to check whether it was a "good idea" in reality. Both Chrysler and GM are now on life support. The government has stiffed the people who provided capital to these companies in favor of patronizing the UAW - itself one of the prime causes of the GM / Chrysler downfall. Our government, with the UAW as a junior partner/parasite, now runs GM and Chrysler. As George Will writes:

Washington’s “rescue” of GM began because GM is “too big to fail,” and bankruptcy is (well, was) “unthinkable.” Big? GM’s market capitalization, $375.8 million on Wednesday, is about the size of California Pizza Kitchen’s ($340 million) — is it too big to fail? — and one-eleventh that of Harley-Davidson ($4.3 billion). Fail? If GM has not already failed, New Coke was a success.

The administration is determined to prop up GM as a jobs program for the UAW and Midwestern states rich in electoral votes. This frenzy will intensify as the administration’s decisions deepen the debacle.

I recall Charles Krauthammer opining on Fox News shortly after Obama was elected, that things wouldn't get that bad under Obama because our economic woes would mean that he didn't have enough money available to implement his "transformation of the economy." Krauthammer did not count on the perfect storm of events in which we find ourselves, and with a President at the helm whose intent to "transform our economy" trumps any consideration of the long term consequences. Krauthammer, to his credit, recognized that reality by December.

The train is coming. It couldn't be any clearer. Meanwhile, Obama is tightening the ropes tying us to the tracks. And the MSM, they're too involved in praising Obama's god-like skills with knots to ask any questions about that annoying whistle getting ever louder in the background.








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Sunday, April 19, 2009

A Shaky Foundation Indeed


Charles Krauthammer had an exceptional article on Friday picking apart the "New Foundation" speech that our Dear Leader in Chief gave at Georgetown. Obama used the speech to outline his plan to take our country on a radical turn to the left - and he did so with mind numbing dissembling.This from the pen of Dr. Krauthammer:

Obama offered his New Foundation speech as the complete, contextual, canonical text for the domestic revolution he aims to enact. It had everything we have come to expect from Obama:

The Whopper: The boast that he had "identified $2 trillion in deficit reductions over the next decade." It takes audacity to repeat this after it had been so widely exposed as transparently phony. Most of this $2 trillion is conjured up by refraining from spending $180 billion a year for 10 more years of surges in Iraq. . . .

The Puzzler: He further boasted of his frugality by saying that his budget would reduce domestic discretionary spending as a share of GDP to the lowest level ever recorded. Amazing. Squeezing discretionary domestic spending at a time of hugely expanding budgets is merely the baleful residue of out-of-control entitlements and debt service, which will increase astronomically under Obama. To claim these as achievements in fiscal responsibility is testament not to Obama's frugality but to his brazenness.

The Non Sequitur: "To make sure such a crisis [as we have today] never happens again," Obama proposes his radical health-care, energy and education reforms, the central pillars of his social democratic agenda. But Obama's own words contradict this assertion. Notes The Post: "But as his admirable summation of recent history made clear, these pursuits have little to do with the economic crisis, and they are not the key to economic recovery." Obama rarely fails to repeat this false connection. A crisis -- and the public's resulting pliability to liberal social engineering -- is a terrible thing to waste.

To interject here, our fiscal crisis resulted from the sub-prime market, government's social engineering in bank lending practices, a bond rating market that completely failed to accurately assess risk, all compounded by Wall Street's development of a new product that failed catastrophically when the market for subprime mortgages came to a grinding halt. Not a single thing Obama has done or proposes to do - beyond new draconian regulation of Wall St. - addresses these fundamental causes of our problems. And indeed, Barney Frank, one of the major architect's of our current disaster, has proposed mandating that municipal bonds be given top ratings for investment despite the real risks associated with those bonds. This is swindle and fantasy writ large.

Now back to Mr. Krauthammer's analysis of Obama's "New Foundation."

The Swindle: The Obama administration is spending money like none other in peacetime history. Obama is smart. He knows this is fiscally unsustainable. He has let it be known privately and publicly that he intends to cure the imbalance with entitlement reform. . . .

In the New Foundation speech, Obama correctly (again) identifies the skyrocketing cost of Medicare and Medicaid as the key fiscal problem. But then he claims that Medicaid and Medicare reform is the same as his health-care reform, fatuously citing as his authority a one-day meeting of handpicked interested parties at his "Fiscal Responsibility Summit."

Here's the problem. The heart of Obama's health-care reform is universality. Covering more people costs more money. That is why Obama's budget sets aside an extra $634 billion in health-care spending, a down payment on an estimated additional spending of $1 trillion. How does the administration curtail the Medicare and Medicaid entitlement by adding yet another (now universal) health-care entitlement that its own estimate acknowledges increases costs by about $1 trillion

I was going to write a pithy conclusion to all of this, but cannot do better than Krauthammer himself:

This is the sand on which the new foundation is constructed. Obama has the magic to make words mean almost anything. Numbers are more resistant to his charms.








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Saturday, March 15, 2008

An Ominous Bear

Until recently, I was confident that our economy would weather the current storm without undue difficulty. With the fall of Bear Stearns, I am far less sanguine. The long-term policy of record low interest rates may have dug us into a hole that proves the worst recession since WWII.





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Bear Stearns, one of the big five investment banks, has gone belly up and the federal reserve has stepped in. This from the WSJ:

Yesterday's combined J.P. Morgan-Federal Reserve rescue of Bear Stearns is one of those judgment calls that are easier to second guess than they are to make in the heat of a financial panic. Regulators have to balance the risks to the larger financial system of letting a big investment bank fail against the discipline of seeing bad risk management punished by the marketplace.

These columns prefer the discipline of the market, but then we don't know all of the facts that regulators confronted as they looked at Bear's troubles. Specifically, we don't know if letting Bear collapse might have had a domino effect on others in the debt and derivative markets.

The Fed and J.P. Morgan are acting in concert to give Bear short-term access to the Fed's discount lending window that Bear couldn't access on its own. A big plunger in the debt markets but not a standard commercial bank, Bear's private sources of funds had dried up. The overriding public interest at the current moment is to maintain a functioning financial system, and regulators clearly felt this was at risk from a Bear failure. Just once we'd like to see what would happen if a big bank did fail, but the current general market panic arguably isn't the best time to have that experiment. Presumably Bear will now be shopped to private buyers. . . .

Read the entire article. Dinah Lord, blogger and former trader, reflects on a similar situation she lived through during her days on Wall St., as well as including links discussing the fall of Bear Stearns.

Dale Franks sees the Bear Stearns situation as dire news indeed. He writes in the QandO blog:

The market took a hit today. It was a body blow. And, whether you know it or not—although, if you're reading this, you'll know now—the economy took a body blow, too. The only thing we don't know is how much damage was caused. But there was damage, and it will become apparent before too much longer.

It's all about liquidity, you see. For the last several days, there's been concern about whether Bear Stearns, one of the Big Five investment banks, was going to be able to meet its financial obligations to client and creditors because of it's exposure to bad mortgage loans. Company executives have been saying, "Yes, we will," right up to this morning, when they said, "No, we can't."

Essentially, JPMorgan Chase will step in to provide financing for 28 days, and those loans, while coming from JPMorgan's coffers, will be underwritten by the federal Reserve.

If you're a Bear Stearns stockholder, by the way, you're screwed. What will probably happen is that, to prevent the firm from going under completely, JPMorgan will acquire Bear Stearns for pennies on the dollar. At the least, the chances of Bear Stearns continuing to exist as an independent entity are probably over for good. Bear Stearns' CEO admits as much, saying the firm is seeking a "more permanent solution".

And if Bear Stearns can't make it, you have to wonder what the actual position of Merrill Lynch, which is also exposed to the Carlyle fund problems, or Thornburg Mortgage, which failed to meet some margin calls earlier this week. Countrywide Home Loans is already involved in a bailout from Bank of America, and has had foreclosure rates double.

At the heart of the problem is an ongoing liquidity crunch. As exposure to bad loans causes foreclosures to increase, huge sums of money are just being written off—basically disappearing from the economy.

The primary effects of this disappearance—the failure of the banking institutions, is bad enough.

Beyond those effects, however, there are effects on the economy as a whole, because these large write-offs not only remove money from the economy in terms of the amount of the disappearing loan assets at the institutions themselves, individuals who do business with these institutions lose the ability to borrow money. Their credit lines disappear. the institution's borrowers lose their money as well.

This money supply shrinkage usually causes people to hoard cash, because they worry that they won't have enough cash to meet their future needs. They stop investing, for example, because they lose faith in the institutions. The dearth of available loan money causes people in the building trades to lose jobs, because new housing starts decline, so they have to begin saving up their own cash, and cutting purchases. And the effect ripples outward through the economy.

We generally call this widespread hoarding of cash a "recession".

That's certainly what the National Bureau of Economic Research calls it. Is calling it, in fact. And they say it may be the worst recession since World War II.

The worst recession in my lifetime was the back-to-back recessions in 1982, when unemployment rose to almost 12%. If we're in for a worse ride than that—well, I don't even want to think about that.

But, apparently, we have to. . . .

. . . Creating a lot of liquidity does not resolve an issue of solvency, which is now the driver of credit contraction. All the Fed will achieve is a dollar that will be further debased and inflation that will be higher. It cannot stop the process of deleveraging and asset price decline...

Prime brokers and banks are reining in credit to leveraged investors. This is a direct consequence of the damage done to banks' credit capacity by the writedowns of loans in other areas, such as structured finance and mortgages. This reduces their risk-free capital (value-at-risk ratios have doubled in the last year in the U.S.). In order to maintain adequate reserves as a proportion of risk assets, lending must be cut...

Credit contraction translates through the financial system into a reduction in available credit for the non-financial corporate sector, and thus into reduced investment and growth in the real economy. The size of that contraction can be estimated from the leverage ratios of the financial sector and their impact on real GDP growth.

We estimate that nonfinancial corporate debt ultimately will have to shrink by 11%-12%. This will generate a decline of five percentage points of real U.S. GDP growth and push the U.S. into recession. Europe's real GDP growth will contract by two percentage points.

Globally, total credit losses of $1.4 trillion will cause a contraction in world GDP of 2.5 percentage points, or half the current rate of global growth. So the global economy will become a gray, dull world of semi-recession and sticky inflation that will last a long time.

What has happened is that the liquidity crunch from mortgage credit problems—too many subprime loans, too many second mortgages, plus declines in housing values—have been amplified from bank lending up through securitized debt, then again amplified in the derivatives markets.

This decline in available credit—i.e. money—is not going to be fixed by a 3% drop in short-term interest rates. And it certainly isn't going to be fixed—or even noticeably ameliorated—by a one-time rebate of $600 per taxpayer.

I'm afraid we're in for an awfully bumpy ride. The problem with Bear Stearns today is not the problem. It is the most visible symptom, though, of the real problem with the economy and one that we'll be facing soon.

Read the entire post. Now I am concerned.


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