Showing posts with label Dept. of Labor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dept. of Labor. Show all posts

Monday, October 29, 2012

A Jobs Report That Might Never Come - Before Nov. 6 At Least

With unemployment being one of the top issues in this election, the October jobs report scheduled for Friday could have an impact on the election - likely a negative one for Obama. This from Hot Air:

{D]uring yesterday’s This Week on ABC. George Stephanopoulos asked former Obama administration economist Austan Goolsbee about the political impact of the jobs report coming up this Friday, just four days before most voters cast their ballots. Goolsbee notes that only “unbelievable outliers … crack through the shell” of the electorate’s consciousness for a single-month’s report. Goolsbee then admits that last month’s jobs report was “artificially too optimistic” — an “unbelievable outlier,” in other words.

So why admit that now? Well, that “unbelievable outlier” is likely to get corrected in this month’s household survey, and that will drive the jobless rate up. . . .

Not so fast. According to the WSJ, the Dept. of Labor is considering putting off the jobs report until after the election because of the superstorm currently bearing down on the East Coast. This in fact might be legitimate, but why do I feel that, if it is anywhere near a close call, the decision will be to put it off until after the election. Hey, maybe it will come out on the same day the State Dept's investigation into the Benghazi scandal is published. And that may come on the same day the MSM starts to pay attention to what is unarguably one of the worst scandals in our nation's history.







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Sunday, January 8, 2012

Cooking The Employment Numbers

The Labor Dept.'s December's job numbers - 200,000 jobs created and 8.5% unemployment - were celebrated throughout the MSM as proof that the economy is turning around.  The numbers, as always, are seasonally adjusted.  But what is different about this year's seasonal adjustment is that the Labor Dept. deviate's significantly upward with past December adjustments.  Tom Blumer at BizzyBlog has the analysis:  

Yesterday’s raw result, if achieved in either of those two Decembers [2004 and 2005}, would have led to a seasonally adjusted result of about 140,000 — 60,000 less than reported.

In the private sector (blue boxes at right), the raw result in December 2005 of 94,000 jobs lost was only 14,000 jobs worse than the -80,000 reported for December 2011, yet yesterday’s seasonally adjusted result was 74,000 jobs higher (212K vs. 138K). What’s more, the nearly breakeven raw result in December 2006 (only 6,000 jobs lost) led to 37,000 fewer job additions after seasonal adjustment than yesterday (175K vs. 212K).

It would seem that the Labor Dept. has learned new math. In any event, as I have pointed out so often before, the focus on Labor's U-3 number, in this case 8.5%, is ridiculous because it discounts a vast number of long term unemployed, deeming them to have voluntarily left the workforce. The U-6 unemployment number captures more of the long term unemployed, as well as those who are working part time simply because they cannot find full term employment. A comparison of the U-3 and U-6 numbers gives a better feel for true unemployment situation - and it is not 8.5%


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Saturday, July 24, 2010

Gender & Class Warfare - The Paycheck Fairness Act

Obama, America's greatest class, race and gender warrior, is throwing his support behind a new bill, the Paycheck Fairness Act, ostensibly to fight rampant gender discrimination in wages. The law would significantly expand government interference in our economy. It would result in an explosion of litigation that will impact many businesses and that will undoubtedly threaten the viability of many small businesses. As such, it will inevitably increase unemployment. It will be a gold mine for trial attorneys and it will act as a means to funnel public funds to community organizers and their left wing groups. But it is a wholly unnecessary law. According to a 2009 study commissioned by the Bureau of Labor, the wage gap has nothing to do with gender discrimination.

We stand today in the midst of not merely a recession, but a mancession. Unemployment in this recession is hitting males at vastly greater rates than women. At last report, men accounted for some 80% of the job losses in this recession. As of June, 2010, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for all men, sixteen years of age in over, was 10.4%. That compared to 8.9% for women. Yet men, and particularly white men, are not a victim class recognized by Obama and the left. Consequently, they receive no assistance. So why is it that women in particular require more assistance now?

Obama is claiming that they do because of a gap in wages caused by gender discrimination. Explaining why America needs to pass the Paycheck Fairness Act, Obama issued a statement on Tuesday:

. . . Women make only 77 cents for every dollar that men earn. The gap is even more significant for working women of color, and it affects women across all education levels. As Vice President Biden and the Middle Class Task Force will discuss today, this is not just a question of fairness for hard-working women. Paycheck discrimination hurts families who lose out on badly needed income. And with so many families depending on women's wages, it hurts the American economy as a whole. In difficult economic times like these, we simply cannot afford this discriminatory burden.

That same justification is also at the center of the bill now in the Senate, where it tells us that:

. . . many women continue to earn significantly lower pay than men for equal work. These pay disparities exist in both the private and governmental sectors. In many instances, the pay disparities can only be due to continued intentional discrimination or the lingering effects of past discrimination.

So there you have it. We still live in a nation where misogynists and evil white males are oppressing women. The problem is, the facts are in complete contradiction.

In 2008, the Department of Labor commissioned CONSAND Research Corp. to do a study to determine why the gender pay disparity exists and what to do about it. The final report, issued in 2009, concluded that the major reasons for the disparity were that:

A greater percentage of women than men tend to work part-time. Part-time work tends to pay less than full-time work.

A greater percentage of women than men tend to leave the labor force for child birth, child care and elder care. Some of the wage gap is explained by the percentage of women who were not in the labor force during previous years, the age of women, and the number of children in the home.

Women, especially working mothers, tend to value “family friendly” workplace policies more than men. Some of the wage gap is explained by industry and occupation, particularly, the percentage of women who work in the industry and occupation.

After discussing additional legitimate reasons for the raw wage disparity, the author concluded:

. . . this study leads to the unambiguous conclusion that the differences in the compensation of men and women are the result of a multitude of factors and that the raw wage gap should not be used as the basis to justify corrective action. Indeed, there may be nothing to correct.

(emphasis added)

It would seem that Obama and the left are being far less than honest in their push to pass the Paycheck Fairness Act.

Discriminating against women in wages has been unlawful since the Equal Pay Act was passed in 1963 (codified at 29 U.S. § 206(d)). As it currently stands, if a woman complains of unequal pay, the employer may then defend by pointing to any of several defenses, including that the disparity is justified by "any other factor other than sex." Obama would modify that defense by adopting a much stricter standard - that employers must show the difference in pay was based on a “bona fide factor other than sex” that is “job related” and “consistent with business necessity." What precisely those terms mean in any particular context will be argued out ad infinitum during very costly and protracted litigation. Importantly, the bill adds that, even if the employer is able to establish the defense above, the plaintiff could still succeed by convincing a jury that some alternative practice could have been adopted that may have negated any need for the disparity. This will open up the floodgates of litigation.

For but one example, what if a woman is hired for a job at 30k, but a man with several years more experience and training is hired for $33k. Is the business then responsible for paying for additional training for the woman to justify bringing her salary up to $33k. How much of a role should experience play in setting wages? Those would be jury questions under the Paycheck Fairness Act, thus taking reasonable decisions on compensation out of the hands of business and putting them in the hands of trial attorneys, judges and juries.

Additionally, the Paycheck Fairness Act would vastly expand the scope of what plaintiffs could use as evidence in making a case for discrimination. Under the Equal Pay Act, a plaintiff is limited to showing a disparity in pay within the particular business and locale at which they work, or in a locale close by. The Paycheck Fairness Act mandates that the plaintiff may look at least county wide, but then goes on to provide the EEOC will have the final say in expanding the geographic area at issue, thus potentially allowing for comparisons between numerous different locales with very different economies. So should a woman working in Henderson, TN, population 6,325, be able to make out a claim for wage discrimination using as her proof the wages of a male working for the same company in Atlanta? Likewise, can a plaintiff look at similarly sized cities throughout the U.S.? If you are a business owner and the Paycheck Fairness Act is passed, the bottom line is you have to assume the answer to both questions is yes, at least until the EEOC makes a final determination.

But all of this gets far worse. For not only does the Paycheck Fairness Act make it much more likely that an employer may be held liable for what we would consider reasonable business decisions, they would also face far greater potential liability if they lose.

Under the Equal Pay Act of 1963, if a plaintiff won, they could recover two times lost wages plus attorneys fees. Under the Paycheck Fairness Act, the damages are unlimited. An employer may be liable for both compensatory and punitive damages, making law suits under PFA a potentially fatal landmine for businesses of all sizes - but particularly small businesses - and a gold mine for the plaintiff's bar. The costs of litigation and the potential for crippling judgments will likely lead many businesses to settle suits for which they have meritorious defenses. And for all of this, the costs get passed on to the public.

Then there are the massive reporting provisions that businesses will be required to meet. The Paycheck Fairness Act charges the EEOC to "issue regulations to provide for the collection of pay information data from employers as described by the sex, race, and national origin of employees."

Lastly, the Paycheck Fairness Act authorizes the Secretary of Labour to give grants to "private nonprofit organization" or "community-based organizations" in order to fund programs that will:

. . . help girls and women strengthen their negotiation skills to allow the girls and women to obtain higher salaries and rates of compensation that are equal to those paid to similarly-situated male employees.

History tells us that a provision of this ilk is nothing more than a conduit to funnel ever more of our tax dollars to ACORN type organizations.

To sum up, this is a bill meant to solve a problem that does not exist. Obama and the left, in claiming that the gap in wages between men and women is because of discrimination, are lying through their teeth in yet another act determined to balkanize America. The proposed bill would inject the courts into core business decisions. It would result in an explosion of litigation that could cripple businesses at a time when our economy can ill afford any more shocks. And the bill would be yet another means for of our Community Organizer in Chief to funnel money to community organizers and their groups. This is a horrid piece of legislation that would do nothing to eliminate discrimination and everything to harm business and our economy. In other words, it is yet another unjustified major assault on our economy and the fabric of our country by Obama and the left.

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Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Smoke, Mirrors, Reality & Unemployment


We are nearing a record in unemployment - though one would not know that from listening to the left touting 9.7% coupled with a monthly gain of 162,000 jobs as good news. But pull back the curtain and the news is dark indeed. This from an ETFGuide article at Yahoo Finance:

. . . For the third straight month, the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment numbers remained the same - 9.7%.

The Labor Department said employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the most since the recession began but below analyst's expectations of 200,000. This number includes the 48,000 temporary workers hired for the U.S. Census.

According to estimates by ADP, a payroll company, the private sector lost 23,000 jobs in March. This estimate does not include government employees. . . .

. . . [T]he real unemployment rate, even by the standards of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is much higher. The U-6 unemployment number, as the real data is called, is at 17.5%, within 0.5% of its all-time high. This figure includes discouraged workers who've stopped looking, marginally attached workers, and workers that are forced to work part-time because full-time jobs are not available.

The post 2007 recession has eliminated 8.4 million jobs and rendered 15.7 million American's jobless. . . .

Before chiming in, consider what it will take to simply get back to a normal unemployment rate of 5%. This is mindboggling.

The current labor force of 154 million will increase by about 1.8 million over each of the next five years because of 'newbies' entering the job market. By 2014, the labor force will be around 163 million. A 5% U-3 (not U-6) unemployment rate would equate to 8.15 million workers without a job.

7.55 million jobs will have to be created to reduce the number of job-less workers from today's 15.7 million to 8.15 million. To accomplish this, there would have to be 125,833 jobs created each and every month over the next five years with no jobs lost.

The average monthly job growth over the past 10 years has been about 50,000. The average monthly job growth over the past 20 years has been about 90,000. Keep in mind that the 1990 - 2010 timeframe hosted the biggest bull market and economic expansion in history. Do you see a 1990s and early 2000s bull market around you? . . .

Read the entire article. And of course, Obama is not done warring on the economy yet, nor promoting market distortions. And the rising cost of energy hangs over our economy like the sword of Damoclese. There is no chance for a recovery under Obama. To the contrary, we will, I think, be lucky if things just don't get any worse between now and 2012. We are, as Instapundit noted, at a point where, should Obama duplicate the collosal incompetence of Jimmy Carter, it would be a best-case scenario.

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Saturday, August 8, 2009

Obama - Smoke, Mirrors & Unemployment


Obama took the opportunity of the release of Dept. of Labor unemployment report on Friday to claim his stimulus (all 7% of it spent so far) was accomplishing its goal, the recession is coming to its end, and that what we need now is a lot more of Obamanomics (health care, cap and trade, finanicail regulatory change, etc.) to insure that we don't repeat the sins that got us into this recession in the first place. According to Obama, among those sins were "inflated profits," "dirty . . . energy," and "soaring healthcare costs" that only "serve special interests."

There is so much wrong with Obama's statement in each and every particular, it would take a small book to address them all. But first and foremost is his claim that the July unemployment figures are somehow good news for the economy. That claim is mind boggling.

In July, according to the Dept. of Labor, America hemmoraged yet another 247,000 jobs. So then how did the Dept. of Labor's unemployment figures drop from 9.5% unemployed in June to 9.4% unemployed in July? It has to do with how the counting is done - and it seems an incredibly dodgy method. Simply put, under Dept. of Labor methedology, if you are unemployed and not somehow counted as actively seeking work within the past four weeks, then you do not count as unemployed for their statistical summary. The actual number of unemployed and underemployed in America is without doubt well into double digits, but that number is unreported. And indeed, with another quarter million jobs lost in June, yet the unemployment rate dropping, the only conclusion is that there is a real numbers game being played at Obama's Dept. of Labor. Smoke, meet mirror - and the teleprompter.

Unfortunately, Obama refused to take any questions from reporters on Friday. One wonders if anyone will follow up on Obama's incredible claims, and particularly his embrace of further bad economic news as marking the "begining of the end" of the recession.






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