Showing posts with label Casualties. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Casualties. Show all posts

Friday, August 1, 2008

Iraq Continues to Improve - But Why?


The success of the surge cannot be denied - only spun now. With security improving and with U.S. deaths now decreasing to their lowest monthly total since the war began, President Bush has announced that he is reducing the length of combat tours for soldiers deploying to Iraq from 15 months to 12 months. He also indicated that, as security conditions improves, he will begin drawing down more units. All of the additional combat brigades sent over as part of the surge have now redeployed from Iraq, leaving 140,000 soldiers in country, 10,000 more than prior to the surge. These additional forces are logistics.

July was the lowest month for casualties - 5 combat deaths and 8 non-combat deaths - recorded in Iraq since the start of the war. This tracks with ever reducing violence throughout Iraq that has fallen to levels not seen since 2004. To their credit, both the Washington Post and the NYT run their stories on this on page 1. Unfortunately, WaPo also takes the line that the security improvements are due in part to events unrelated to the surge - i.e., the good will of Sadr and the Awakening movements. To call that partisan and demonstrably false is an understatement.
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This from the Washington Post:

Five American troops died in July as a result of combat in Iraq, by far the lowest monthly U.S. death toll of the five-year war.

The number of Iraq-related American troop fatalities in July -- a total of 13 when noncombat deaths and the discovered bodies of two missing soldiers are included -- is a dramatic drop from just over a year ago, when more than 100 troops a month were confirmed dead for several months in a row.

In a brief statement at the White House early Thursday, President Bush suggested that the decreasing violence in Iraq would allow him to withdraw additional U.S. troops before he leaves office. He said that the top American commander in Iraq, Gen. David H. Petraeus, would make recommendations in September for "future reductions in our combat forces, as conditions permit."

"The progress is still reversible," Bush said he was told by top U.S. officials in Iraq. "But they report that there now appears to be a degree of durability to the gains we have made."

Bush struck a delicate rhetorical balance between asserting his view that sending additional troops to Iraq has been a success, while at the same time cautioning that withdrawing troops too rapidly could jeopardize security improvements.

. . . Starting Friday, Bush said, troop deployments in Iraq will shorten from 15 months to 12. The policy, first announced in April, applies to troops heading to Iraq but not those already stationed there.

The decline in American deaths highlights improvements in security that are widely attributed to three factors: a cease-fire by the country's largest Shiite militia, the decision of former Sunni insurgents to join with U.S. troops and the buildup of American forces. [emphasis added]

"It just feels so much safer than I ever thought it would," said Sgt. Daniel Ochoa, 26, of Highland Park, Calif., who is based in southern Baghdad. "We don't really go out anymore looking to go and fight the enemy. Things are stabilized, so now we're working more on helping the economy and getting people on their feet."

Despite the increased sense of security, deep-rooted tensions remain that continue to provoke violence. This week, more than 50 people were killed in a series of attacks related to a power struggle over control of the oil-rich and ethnically mixed city of Kirkuk in northern Iraq.

The situation grew more tense on Thursday when the Kurdish majority on the council of Tamim province, which includes Kirkuk, voted to join the neighboring Kurdish regional government.

The move is largely symbolic, because the Iraqi parliament would have to approve it, but it provoked denunciations by representatives of rival ethnic communities, who said they would fight to prevent the Kurds from taking over the city.

"The fires of Kirkuk will eat all Iraq's cities and even the Americans," said Hussein Ali al-Jubouri, the head of the largest Sunni Arab political bloc in Kirkuk.

. . . At military bases across Iraq, American soldiers have been paying close attention to the security situation and what it might mean for the timing of their return home.

"My soldiers ask me that every day: I heard a rumor they're reducing our deployment! Is it true?" said 1st Lt. Matthew Linton, 24, of Florida, N.Y., a platoon leader based in the once volatile Sadr City district of Baghdad. "Everybody wants to come home early."

Linton's troops spent Thursday distributing $2,500 grants to merchants in Sadr City's Jamila Market and chatting with the owner of a candy store.

"When we used to walk the streets in April, they were empty and we would be destroying buildings used by enemy positions," he said. "Now we walk the same streets that were covered in sewage and rubble and utter destruction, and they are vibrant and full of people.

"As the situation improves, it feels more like the race is almost finished," Linton said, "compared to you're in the middle of the race and you have a long way to go."

Read the entire article. As to the WaPo author's gratuitous attribution of the success in Iraq to events other than the surge, I would suggest reading Michael O'Hanlon's articulate assessment. That is the WaPo author inserting a pro-Obama political opinion into what is supposed to be a news article. I do hope Petraeus or some of our soldiers who have fought in Iraq so valiantly weigh in on this before the left can repeat their new myth so often it becomes accepted as reality. It is a tremendous disservice to our soldiers.

As to Kirkuk, I've written many times before that Kurdish seperatism and adventurism could well be the flashpoint for a true civil war in Iraq. The U.S. weighed in on this issue by supporting Turkey's incursions into the Kurdish north. That seemed to cow the Kurds somewhat, though clearly the underlying issues are divisive and still extant.


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Monday, June 30, 2008

Iraq Update

All measurements of violence and casualties in Iraq continue to fall. U.S. casualties are at their lowest two month total since the invasion of Iraq. The demise of the "powerful" Mahdi Army is examined. Voluntary pacification programs are encouraging hundreds of former insurgents to turn themselves in. Iraq is opening the bidding for exploitation of its oil resources. The government of Iraq plans to spend huge funds rehabilitating Sadr City. And lastly, Talisman Gate raises a problematic area that has no good solutions.
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Falling Casualties

This from Bizzy Blog with charts:

With less than 10 hours remaining until the end of June in Iraq at the time of this post, it is clear, barring heavy last-minute casuaties, that May and June will show the lowest two-month total of US troop deaths in the five-year history of our involvement there.

How with the media handle the news?

. . . May-June two-month total of 48 troop deaths from all causes is quite a bit lower than any other two-month period in the entire war. The next-lowest is 60, in November and December of 2007.

The two-month death toll of 38 from hostile causes is the lowest since August and September of 2003. . . .

The Iraqi death toll also continues its downward trajectory. The month of June saw a further 10% drop in deaths due to political violence over May's figures. This continues a trend since the summer of 2007, with a blip that occurred in March and April when the government initiated offensives against the Sadrists.

The gains made by the counterinsurgency strategy are huge, and everyone is crossing their fingers, hoping that they hold. If they do, than the "military and political developments that have caused attacks against Coalition troops to fall by 80 percent year-on-year will be viewed with success."

The Demise of the "Powerful" Mahdi Army:

Sadr announced the demobilization of the Mahdi Army about two weeks ago. Long War Journal reports that the decision came amidst high casualties and a loss of public support:

The Mahdi Army suffered a significant blow during fighting against Iraqi and Coalition forces this year, according to an Iraq intelligence report. . . .

. . . "This led to the almost complete collapse of the army," the official said. An estimated 1,300 Mahdi Army fighters "escaped to safe houses in Iran." Muqtada al Sadr currently resides in Qom, Iran, under the protection of Iran's Qods Force. . . .

The setbacks in Baghdad, Basrah, and the South have forced Sadr to turn the Mahdi Army into "a secret military organization," the Iraqi report stated. "The number of members doesn't exceed 150-200, hugely down from the total estimated number of 50,000 in the past two years."

Iraqi intelligence believes the Mahdi Army, which is funded and supported by Iran, "will be somewhat [similar] to Al Qaida and some of the other Sunni armed groups and will have to carry out quality operations against US forces and assassinate some of the important Iraqi figures [to prove itself]."

. . . The intelligence report suggests Sadr was forced to change strategy and retreat in the face of heavy casualties and dwindling support from the Shia population. . . .

Read the entire article.

Voluntary Pacification:

As the Iraqi government and U.S. forces bring greater security, many insurgents are voluntarily turning themselves in, taking advantage of U.S. programs, as word has gotten out that they will be treated fairly. This from NPR reporting on one such program in Salahuddin province:

Iraq's Salahuddin province has been known for years as a violent stronghold of Sunni insurgents, including al-Qaida. But lately it has been relatively quiet. U.S. military units there say that's because former rebel fighters are turning themselves in by the hundreds — including some who had been the most virulently anti-American leaders.

Read the entire report.

Other Iraq Related News:

Iraq produces 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. The country has just opened bidding for 35 oil companies to rehabilitate existing fields and to drill new areas, with the expectation of raising production to 4 million barrels per day.

With Sadr City now under its control, the government of Iraq has pledged $100 million dollars to rebuild Sadr City and to bring in jobs and services.

War is chaotic, solutions to problems are often muddled and gray. Thus you do have probably more than a few very bad actors in the Sons of Iraq and on the U.S. payroll who Iraq decides they do not wish to forgive and forget. Nibras Karzimi discusses one such instance at Talisman Gate. It is one of countless such issues that will rise and be resolved, probably to no one's satisfaction, in the years ahead.


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Thursday, March 6, 2008

Iraq News

Muktada al Sadr is reported hospitalized in a coma. Front page reports of a major terrorist bombing in Baghdad come amid significant long term decrease in violence and costs of the war in Iraq. U.S. and Iraqi forces continue to engage al Qaeda in northern Iraq.

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MEMRI has posted a Kuwaiti new story that Moqtada al-Sadr is comatose and in a hospital in Iran. Authorities are ostensibly blaming his condition on food poisoning - something normally not a serious illness unless its of the potentially fatal variety of e-coli or botulism. I have not yet seen any confirming reports. (H/T Dr. Sanity)

As to the trend in casualties and costs associated with Iraq, there is this from an exceptional post at Gateway Pundit:

Truly- The Surge Is Historic in Its Success--
The mainstream media has absolutely refused to report on the excellent news coming out of Iraq so Dean's World reported the great news today.
Here are a few charts to go with his excellent report on Iraq:

The last 4 months have seen the lowest US fatalities recorded over any 4-month period since the war began:



The last 4 months have also seen the lowest number of Iraqi civilian fatalities recorded over any 4-month period since the war began:



. . . And, the cost of this war-- something the Democrats are focusing on now that Iraq is stabilizing-- is lower than Vietnam or the Cold War:


Read the entire post.

And from the NY Times, a major terrorist bombing at a market in Iraq. According to the NYT:

Two bombs struck a bustling shopping district in the heart of Baghdad on Thursday evening, turning display windows and cabinets and glass shelves into deadly shrapnel, and killing 54 people and wounding 123, the Iraqi authorities said.

The attack, in the Karada neighborhood, was the worst here in the capital since early February, when bombings killed almost 100 people at two pet markets, and it reinforced fears that insurgents could still carry out devastating attacks in well-guarded areas. While violence has declined sharply from last year, bomb attacks in Baghdad have increased in recent weeks.

No one claimed responsibility. But the attackers used an old tactic to maximize casualties: detonating one bomb, then setting off a second blast to kill passers-by and emergency workers who rushed to the scene to aid the victims. . . .

Read the entire article. It is unclear whether this was a suicide bombing, but double bombings such as this are a common al Qaeda tactic. It is unclear whether this is an action by al Qaeda or Iranian backed special groups. In other Iraq news, this from the AP:

. . . U.S. and Iraqi forces killed 13 suspected insurgents and detained 44 others in raids targeting al-Qaida in central and northern Iraq, the U.S. military said Thursday. Three Iraqi troops were killed in one of the operations.

The Tal Afar Special Weapons and Tactics team, made up of U.S. forces and Iraqi SWAT teams, on Sunday targeted a cell responsible for assassinations and bombing attacks in the Tal Afar area in Iraq's Ninevah province, the military said in a statement.

During the raid, several fighters opened fire on the Iraqi and U.S. troops, killing the three Iraqi soldiers and wounding three others.

The U.S.-Iraqi team killed nine suspected insurgents. Three Iraqi civilians were wounded and treated at the scene and eight suspected cell members were detained for questioning, including two who were wounded and evacuated to a military hospital for treatment, the military said.

During the operation, the team found bomb-making materials, a rocket-propelled grenade launcher, rifles, grenades, a land mine and ammunition, according to the statement.

The Americans and their Iraqi allies are pushing to take control of the Ninevah region, where insurgent fighters are making a stand after their influence diminished in Baghdad and other areas last year. Tal Afar is located about 260 miles northwest of Baghdad.

In another operation, U.S. soldiers shot and killed a man who drew a pistol on them and then tried to detonate a bomb-laden suicide vest. Three suspected al-Qaida members were also detained during the operation near the central city of Samarra, 60 miles north of Baghdad.

Another al-Qaida suspect who was also killed near Samarra was allegedly involved in racketeering and embezzlement to fund the extremist organization.

Read the entire article.


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Thursday, January 3, 2008

Interesting News - 3 January 2008


California Democratic Congressman Tom Lantos has announced that he has cancer and will not be seeking reelection. Lantos, first elected in 1981, is the only holocaust survivor ever to serve in Congress. He has been a very colorful wild card at times, and he is one of the few Democrats I can honestly say will be missed.

"The greatest media story of 2007 was the one you never read: The year was a strategic catastrophe for Islamist terrorists - and possibly a historic turning point in the struggle against al Qaeda and its affiliates."

U.S. deaths in Iraq are at their lowest three month total ever.

Amir Taheri is optimistic about Pakistan, despite Bhutto’s assassination. And he has some interesting thoughts on how to approach the problems in Waziristan.

Tribal politics in Pakistan and more in a round-up at Fausta’s blog.

Lebanese MP Walid Jumblat says that Hezbollah are paid agents of Iran and Syria now operating with the intent of eliminating the state of Lebanon.

Another special prosecutor is being appointed, this one on the issue of the destruction of the CIA tapes. Didn’t we learn any lessons from the last travesty?

Rick Moran ponders the fight for the soul of the Republican Party between social conservatives and other ideologies currently cobbled together under the GOP tent.

From across the pond, the EU looks to a one size fits all common energy policy, while Richard North both argues for nuclear power in the UK: "[W]e have a nation that is in thrall to the Greens who, bessotted with the idea of anthropogenic global warming, are at one demanding absurdly expensive measure – such as wind farms – to reduce CO2 emissions, yet are standing in the way of the most obvious and effective long-term solution to both energy security and emissions reductions – nuclear power.

Aggressive buying by speculators, cold weather in the northern hemisphere and the falling US dollar helped to propel the price of oil to a record $100 a barrel.

When I see someone advocating the race baiting, wildly leftist 9-11 truther Cynthia McKinney for President, I question in what possible alternate world they exist. The answer in this case is British academia and the credentials of this McKinney supporter goes far in explanation. "Dr Derek Wall . . . teaches economics at Goldsmiths College, University of London. His most recent book Babylon and Beyond looks at alternatives to capitalism and corporate globalisation."

The left is reacting to treacherous decision by the NYT to hire Bill Kritsol as a columnist. Do enjoy the wailing and lamentations.

A model’s lawsuit. I love this quote: "I think she's going to need to prove she's actually legally retarded if she even wants to survive a motion to dismiss."

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Sunday, November 11, 2007

News(less) on Iraq

It is not surprising to note that, in a quick perusal of today’s major newspapers, there appears not a word about Veteran’s Day. Our nation’s premier journalists do not seem to want to have to think about the military today. Nor is it surprising to find no substantive news on Iraq. Were things different in Iraq, were the facts much more in line with the narrative and world view of the hard left, we would be reading much more on both topics.

The Vietnam Era that bred the emotion-over-reason mentality and narcissism of today’s neo-liberals and journalists is over. They bet the farm on defeat in Iraq, with the high water mark of their charge being Harry Reid’s declaration of defeat and capitulation in response to four suicide bombings by al Qaeda in April.

What we are witnessing now are the neo-liberals in a state of denial.

The left, whether it be in government or in the press, is in "full court denial" about success in Iraq, a success even Osama bin Laden acknowledged in his tape of last month, stating "the darkness [in Iraq] has become pitch black."

In our government, the far left is still pressing to legislate defeat in Iraq. In the press, what you see now is the lack of any substantive reporting from Iraq in the major newspapers unless it can somehow be given a negative headline. As Jules Crittenden put it so humorously a few days ago, they are desperately seeking a fly to put in the ointment.

Today’s Washington Post is a case in point. They are running an AP story that is trying to wring the very last possible bit of mileage out of something that can be cast negatively on our efforts in Iraq.

The headline is "Death Marks Grim Afghanistan, Iraq Milestones." The milestone is the one passed last week in Iraq. It was widely reported on November 6 that Americans had suffered 852 killed in Iraq for the year, marking it as the deadliest year for U.S. forces since operations in Iraq began. It now gets revived, though there is nothing in the article about Iraq beyond noting again the number dead. So sad have the neo-liberals of our nation become.

Update: In the time it has taken me to write the above, and before I could get the cite, the Washington Post has edited the story to take all mention of Iraq out of the headline and out of the article. The cite I have above is from a cache. Here is the edited article that now appears on the WaPo site.

Fascinating.

As a side note, I should note that the term I am using, neo-liberal, is my own construct. The liberals of old were principled and intellectual honesty. Daniel Patrick Moynihan epitomized true liberals. What we see of the hard left today is an entirely different animal. They have eschewed reason and intellectual honesty in favor of invective and pursuit of power at all costs. Thus, the only way I can describe the modern left of today is "neo-liberal."

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Honoring our Veterans

Today is November 11, the day World War I ended and the day in which we are to honor those who have served in our armed forces. As we do, we need always to specially remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice in battle for their nation.



American Revolution (1775-1783): 4,435
War of 1812 (1812–1815) 2,260
Mexican War (1846–1848) 1,733
Civil War (1861–1865) 214,938
World War I (1917–1918) 53,402
World War II (1940–1945) 291,557
Korean War (1950–1953) 33,741
Vietnam War (1964–1975) 47,424
Gulf War (1990–1991) 147
Iraq (2003-Present) 3,859
Afghanistan (2001-Present) 455

EU Referendum has quoted a poem today that I think very apropos:

They shall not grow old, as we that are left grow old.
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them.

-- Lawrence Binyon

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