The Bounce

Obama did his world tour. He announced his findings and plan for Iraq and Afghanistan and then visited those countries. He did Europe where he had to remind people that he would not be voted in as President until November. The Germans went wild. The Brits were in awe. Our troops, a bit less so, but he did not see them that often, so no problems there. The press coverage was all Obama, all the time. It has become so obvious that the MSM is in the tank for Obama one was surprised to hear the occasional mention of John McCain.

So here it comes. The bounce in the polls. . . . .

It is now McCain by 4 points.

That according to the latest from the USA Today-Gallup Poll.

As Gateway Pundit puts it, ruh roh. One can only imagine the sudden breakout of tourettes on the far left this afternoon.

Yes, I know this is but one poll. Yet . . . Abe Lincoln has been validated. You really can't fool all the people all the time.

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Al Qaeda, Current Ops in Iraq, & Security In Baghdad

The map above shows in dark red the remaining areas where al Qaeda is still active in Iraq. The light areas indicate transit routes. This today from the Long War Journal:

Nearly one year to the day of the announcement of the "surge" of US forces to Iraq and the change in counterinsurgency plan, Iraqi and Coalition forces have shrunk al Qaeda's ability to conduct operations inside Iraq, a senior US commander said.

During a press briefing in Baghdad, Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, the Commander of Multinational Corps Iraq, said al Qaeda in Iraq has been ejected from its strongholds in the cities to the rural regions of Iraq.

From late 2006 into 2007, "Iraq was caught in a cycle of bloodshed under the dark cloud of al Qaeda," said Odierno. Al Qaeda was "entrenched in numerous urban safe havens across Iraq" until the surge forces launched Operation Phantom Thunder in June 2007.

Al Qaeda in Iraq's network has been significantly degraded, but is still a threat. Al Qaeda remains active in regions near Miqdadiyah, Mosul, Hawijah, Samarra, and southeast of Baghdad in the Arab Jabour region. "Although the group remains a dangerous threat, its capabilities have been diminished," said Odierno. "Al Qaeda has been pushed out of urban centers like Baghdad, Ramadi, Fallujah and Baqubah, and forced into isolated rural areas. Many of their top leaders have been eliminated, and finding qualified replacements is increasingly difficult for them." Multinational Forces Iraq also estimates it has significantly degraded al Qaeda's ability to fund operations by dismantling its financier networks and leaders.

Operation Phantom Phoenix, the current nationwide operation targeting al Qaeda's remaining safe havens, was launched on Jan. 8. Iraqi and US forces have captured or killed 121 al Qaeda fighters, wounded 14, and detained an additional 1023 suspects. Al Qaeda's leadership has been hit hard during the operation, with 92 high values targets either killed or captured.

Iraqi and US forces have also discovered 351 weapons caches and four tunnel complexes, Odierno said. Iraqi and US forces have also discovered three car bomb and improvised explosive device [IED] factories and 410 IEDs, including 18 car bombs and 25 homes rigged with explosives. Also found were "numerous torture chambers, an underground medical clinic, several closed schools, and a large foreign fighter camp with intricate tunnel complexes," said Odierno. . .

Read the entire post here. The USA Today uses its front page today to highlight the dramatic security gains in Iraq made with the counterinsurgency strategy:

About 75% of Baghdad's neighborhoods are now secure, a dramatic increase from 8% a year ago when President Bush ordered more troops to the capital, U.S. military figures show.

The military classifies 356 of Baghdad's 474 neighborhoods in the "control" or "retain" category of its four-tier security rating system, meaning enemy activity in those areas has been mostly eliminated and normal economic activity is resuming.

The data given by the military to USA TODAY provide one of the clearest snapshots yet of how security has improved in Baghdad since roughly 30,000 additional American troops arrived in Iraq last year.

U.S. commanders caution that the gains are still fragile, but at the moment U.S. and Iraqi forces "basically own the streets," said Col. Ricky Gibbs, a brigade commander in southern Baghdad.

The fight to control Baghdad is the centerpiece of the counterinsurgency strategy launched a year ago by Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq. The plan, popularly known as the "surge," seeks to reduce sectarian and other violence by moving troops off large bases and into dangerous neighborhoods to protect civilians.

The 310 neighborhoods in the "control" category are secure, but depend on U.S. and Iraqi military forces to maintain the peace. The 46 areas in the "retain" category have reached a level where Iraqi police and security forces can maintain order, a more permanent fix. The remaining areas have fewer security forces based there, though they are not necessarily violent.

In February 2007, when additional U.S. forces began arriving, only 37 Baghdad neighborhoods were in the "control" and "retain" categories.

The drop in violence in Baghdad and elsewhere helped avert a religious civil war, said Thomas Hammes, a retired Marine colonel and author.

. . . The U.S. military is wary of handing over security responsibility too quickly to Iraqi forces. "There are concerns we'll pull out of here too fast just because we have such great gains," Gibbs said by phone from Iraq.

. . . Although weakened and pushed out of Iraq's major cities, al-Qaeda remains focused on trying to dominate the capital, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the No. 2 U.S. commander in Iraq, said Thursday. "Their long-term sights are still set on Baghdad," he said.

Read the entire article here.

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Good News From Iraq As Harry Reid Throws His Support to Al Qaeda

Does that graph look like security has vastly improved in Iraq to you? It doesn't to our Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Doing his best impression of Baghdad Bob, Reid stated during a press conference, responding to the question of why the Democrats are losing their "battles on the Hill" to Republicans:

"Who's winning?" Reid asked a group of reporters. "Big oil, big tobacco. ... Al Qaeda has regrouped and is able to fight a civil war in Iraq. ... The American people are losing."

Reid seems to be following up his earlier declaration of defeat in April. That hasn't panned out so well for him, but he's obviously not giving up the good fight, even if al Qaeda in Iraq has. Even Osama - "the darkness [in Iraq] is pitch black" - bin Laden himself isin't providing Reid any support. Unfortunately, we will never know if another pint of blood was spilled because of statements like this from Reid, but clearly that possiblity palls in comparison to the chance for partisan political gain.

The above graph is courtesy of Bill Rogio at the Long War Journal, who takes a look at the numbers and graphs just released by the IMF-Iraq. They show signficant declines in violence virtually across the board, and a more than 100% increase in the number of weapons caches found. Visit the Long War Journal for all of the graphs. Harry Reid aside, Iraq seems moving towards success more and more every day.

And in more good news, the Iraqi government has taken a major step forward in integrating its Sunni population, both from a political and security standpoint. This was a large matter of concern highlighted by the Washington Post and blogged here. One would think WaPo would prominently display the follow up to their then valid gloom and doom front page article, but they seem to have missed it for some reason. Perhaps its not newsworthy. Fortunately, USA Today has not:

Iraq's Shiite-dominated government has agreed to take over support of a U.S.-funded plan that has organized thousands of Iraqis — including former insurgents and their sympathizers — into local security groups.

The move is a long-awaited step toward national reconciliation, said Saad al-Muttalibi, an official at Iraq's Ministry of National Dialogue and Reconciliation.

"It's now reassuring that the government of Iraq recognizes that this is a program that has worked in Anbar and is beginning to work elsewhere in the country," said Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, a U.S. military spokesman.

Iraq intends to move the guards into training programs as quickly as possible, Muttalibi said. "It's not a good idea to have people with guns running around the streets," he said.

The movement toward local security began in predominantly Sunni Anbar province, where tribal leaders and their followers agreed to work with U.S. and Iraqi forces in fighting al-Qaeda. The program expanded rapidly elsewhere, including Baghdad.

At first, Iraq's government eyed the groups warily and considered them a potential threat. . . .

Read the article. Now, with today's most surreal thought - if we could only get the Iraq War funded . . .

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