Countdown to Doomsday: Ending the Iranian Nuclear Threat

The next IAEA report on Iran's nuclear program is due in the coming week. Iran continues to push forward its program despite a series of tepid sanctions and after years of fruitless negotiations with the EU-3 - France, Germany and England. At this point, Iran has 3,000 centrifuges operational with plans to bring many more on-line. It takes 3,000 centrifuges running for one year to produce enough plutonium to create one atomic bomb. It is likely that Iran is within twenty-four months of having a nuclear weapon. We are at the tipping point on Iran, if not already beyond it. Either we introduce economy crippling sanctions on Iran, or our only remaining option will be war.

It is clear that fact is recognized by the key players, both in the rest of the world and within the theocracy itself where there is ancedotal evidence of a split on their nuclear program. This evidence includes the resignation of the theocracy's chief nuclear negotiator, Larenjani, and recent accusations by Ahmedinejad that those inside the regime who question the nuclear program are traitors.

Russia, the country responsible for building Iran's nuclear program, is a wild card. But if the recent article by Amir Taheri is accurate, then Putin's meeting with Supreme Guide Ali al Khameini and President Ahmedinejad has resulted in a catharsis, with Putin now recognizing just how dangerous is a nuclear armed Iranian theocracy on Russia's southern flank. There are indications that Russia is considering changing its tack on Iran, which would of course be a major step forward.

All of that said, ultimately, the key to effective sanctions rests with Germany and France, both heavilly involved in the Iranian economy and both of whom have refused to impose serious sanctions against Iran to this point. The new regime in France has firmly stated that Iran cannot be allowed to continue its nuclear program. And Angela Merkel in Germany has agreed to review her country's economic ties to Iran. Both will have to overcome signficant resistance from entrenched corporate interests if effective sanctions are to be imposed.

If Germany and France agree to effective sanctions against Iran, then there is a possibility that war can be averted. That will be all the more true if Russia agrees to cooperate with the US and EU. But the window for the West to finally take effective action short of war is rapidly closing. The next round of sanctions likely be the last opportunity to solve the problem of a nuclear Iranian theocracy peacefully before their access to nuclear weapons becomes a fait accompli.