Saturday, August 8, 2009

Obama - Smoke, Mirrors & Unemployment

Obama took the opportunity of the release of Dept. of Labor unemployment report on Friday to claim his stimulus (all 7% of it spent so far) was accomplishing its goal, the recession is coming to its end, and that what we need now is a lot more of Obamanomics (health care, cap and trade, finanicail regulatory change, etc.) to insure that we don't repeat the sins that got us into this recession in the first place. According to Obama, among those sins were "inflated profits," "dirty . . . energy," and "soaring healthcare costs" that only "serve special interests."

There is so much wrong with Obama's statement in each and every particular, it would take a small book to address them all. But first and foremost is his claim that the July unemployment figures are somehow good news for the economy. That claim is mind boggling.

In July, according to the Dept. of Labor, America hemmoraged yet another 247,000 jobs. So then how did the Dept. of Labor's unemployment figures drop from 9.5% unemployed in June to 9.4% unemployed in July? It has to do with how the counting is done - and it seems an incredibly dodgy method. Simply put, under Dept. of Labor methedology, if you are unemployed and not somehow counted as actively seeking work within the past four weeks, then you do not count as unemployed for their statistical summary. The actual number of unemployed and underemployed in America is without doubt well into double digits, but that number is unreported. And indeed, with another quarter million jobs lost in June, yet the unemployment rate dropping, the only conclusion is that there is a real numbers game being played at Obama's Dept. of Labor. Smoke, meet mirror - and the teleprompter.

Unfortunately, Obama refused to take any questions from reporters on Friday. One wonders if anyone will follow up on Obama's incredible claims, and particularly his embrace of further bad economic news as marking the "begining of the end" of the recession.


Anonymous said...


Even disregarding the US DoL's "dodgy method", there's a little thing I remember from my statistics courses called "statistical significance". There are a number of mathematical tests to evaluate a change in statistical measurements. A change of 0.1% in this case is a change of only 1/95th (one-ninety-fifth). It would be very unlikely that that amount would be statistically significant just on its face.

Always On Watch said...

BHO is such a liar that I don't believe a word he says. The problem, of course, is that many who supported him haven't yet seen the light because the mainstream media are in BHO's back pocket.