Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Handicapping The Race

Looking at the Republican potential / declared candidates for President in 2012, here is how I see their chances:

3 to 1 - Paul Ryan: The economy is the single most important issue facing our nation going into 2012. Ryan understands the economics of our government the way few do - and he can explain the economics, albeit a bit woodenly. Most importantly, he has had the intellectual honesty and huevos grande to go where few politicians dare tread, proposing specific reforms to our entitlement boondoggles. Negatives - he says he won't run.
Ability to beat Obama: 54 to 46.

5 to 1 - Chris Christie: His winning wars with the unions and the democratic legislature in NJ have been the stuff of youtube gold. He is articulate and doesn't back down an inch. His ability to communicate is the best of any politician on either side of the aisle.
Negatives - He says he won't run. He wants to keep NJ pensions as defined benefit plans. Lastly, he seems to have RINO tendencies on issues such as gun control, as well as zero understanding of the threat we face from political Islam.
Ability to beat Obama: 53 to 47.

6 to 1 - Mitch Daniels: Daniels too understands economics, having served as Director of OMB. As a two-term Gov. of Indiana, Daniels has taken Indiana from a significant deficit to fiscal sanity. His first day as Gov., Daniels decertified all government employee unions by executive order and did away with the requirement that State employees pay mandatory union dues. In 2008, he passed laws creating a statewide school voucher program and merit pay for teachers. He also oversaw passage of laws penalizing companies who employed illegal aliens as well as denying illegal aliens in-state tuition.
Negatives: His earlier call for a truce on social issues has left SoCon's leery. Moreover, one of his first acts as Gov. was to submit a fiscal plan that called for tax increases. Lastly, he is still playing coy, promising to decide on whether to enter the race "soon."
Ability to beat Obama: 53 to 47.

8 to 1 - Mitt Romney: He is a well known quantity from the 2008 election. He was a very successful businessman and a former governor of bluest of blue Mass. He will likely be able to raise a huge warchest. And lastly, he is the "next man in line," which seems to be the way Republicans choose their nominees.
Negatives: Romneycare, Romneycare, Romneycare. Did I mention Romneycare.
Ability to beat Obama: 51 to 49.

10 - 1 Michelle Bachman: She is still a bit of a mystery to me. She has embraced the tea party and taken strong positions on social issues, leading others more knowledgeable about her than I to say that she has the SoCon vote largely sewn up. I have not heard her debate anyone yet. I do know that she has very strong money raising potential.
Negatives: She has already gotten a bit of the Sarah Palin treatment from the media, claiming that she is an intellectual light weight. If she does well in debates, she could easily move up the ladder.
Ability to beat Obama: 50 to 50.

10 - 1 Herman Cain: An extremely successful businessman and an arch-conservative talk show host. He is likable, well spoken and has the best business bona fides of anyone in the race. He is able to think quickly on his feet and is very knowledgeable about all of the major political issues.
Negatives: No experience in government. His health is also a concern.
Ability to beat Obama: 50 to 50.

15 - 1 - Sarah Palin: She is the most well known of all the potential candidates. She is intelligent, articulate and beautiful. But having been the subject of the most relentless leftwing media jihad in our nations history, she is a wild card. If she enters the race, and she might, I could easily see her placing second, if not first.
Negatives - She has already been successfully labled by the left as an intellectual lightweight. She would have to overcome that label and overcome questions regarding her decision to resign from the governorship of Alaska.
Ability to beat Obama: 49 to 51.

15 - 1 - Jeb Bush: He is the Bush that his family thought would be President. By all accounts, he did an excellent job as Gov. of Florida, making positive changes in the areas of education, medical malpractice and Medicare.
Negatives: He has indicated that he will likely not run. And of course, his last name is Bush - a liability for probably the next 4 to 6 years.
Ability to beat Obama: 49 to 51.

100 - 1 - Jon Huntsman: One of the key issues facing us is the left's insane push to treat carbon as a pollutant, with all the ramifications that has for our economy. A few days ago, Huntsman said he believes in man-made global warming. Moreover, while he was Gov. of Utah, he embraced the stimulus.
Negatives: I don't see much positive about Huntsman at this point.
Ability to beat Obama: 47 to 53.

999 to 1 - Ron Paul: From an uber-isolationist foreign policy to his embrace of the gold standard, Ron Paul is the Republican's crazy uncle.
Ability to beat Obama: 30 to 70.

1,000,000 to 1 - Chuck Schumer: I list Schumer simply to put the chances of Newt Gingrich in perspective.
Ability to beat Obama: 0.

1,000,001 to 1 - Newt Gingrich: Having gone on the Sunday talk shows and played Russian roulette with all chambers filled, Gingrich has destroyed any possible chance of winning the nomination for Republican candidate for the Presidency. But all is not lost. He could still mount a primary challenge to Obama.
Ability to beat Obama: 0


Anonymous said...

Your book making skills ought to make you a pauper. The more the media likes a Republican the more you know that candidate is a leper.

The more it attacks a candidate you know that is the candidate it fears.

Verdict-Palin by a country mile.

Romney-Newt's siamese twin.
Christy-If you loved Guiliani you'll love Christy.
Daniels-The man who put the R into RINO.

Paul_In_Houston said...

She has already been successfully labeled by the left as an intellectual lightweight.

Don't you just love that?

As compared to the most empty-headed moron I've seen in that office in living memory?!!!

And, as I'm closing in on 69, that memory goes back a looooong way.

GW said...

Anon - I never said that this was my wish list. It is as objective an assessment as I can make. Actually, I suspect the left wing media to embrace Huntsman, the penultimate Rino. Romney is listed so high because he is going to raise a ton of money and because he is "next in line," two major considerations. He would be a shoo-in but for Romneycare, which may well be fatal.

And as much as I like Sarah, she has her own baggage to overcome. Actually, the media backlash to Sarah Palin went far beyond trashing her as a candidate. Sarah threatens their entire power structure. Thus the hatred shown her was primal and irrational on a scale never before seen in the U.S.

Given my druthers at this point, I'd rather see Ryan or Daniels as our nominee. I think either would stand a good chance of beating Obama and both are well versed in the economy.

Paul - My memory does not go back near as far, but yeah.

dave in boca said...

Now that Daniels was forced by a weird spouse to commit political hara-kiri, Ryan is my favorite. What happened to an old-fashioned draft, before primaries became the sole criterion for a candidate's worth?

At this moment, the insane anvil chorus of the socialist lamestream media brays in unison that a congressional race in western NY is some sort of gigantic referendum on Paul Ryan's candidacy. That shows that, as usual, the leftist libtards are aware that Ryan will make this cafe-au-lait Manchurian Confection into French toast and eat him for breakfast.

I don't blame Ryan for not wanting to enter the meat-grinder of primary electoral politics. The left is already sharpening its knives....

My wife actually went out on a belly-dancing "date" with Mitch Daniels in the early '70s and tells me that he's whiter than Holsum bread and about as exciting.

I was fixed up by a local politico with a one-to-one lunch with Col. Allen West here in Boca last summer. A guy who should be short-listed for Veep in a real GOP universe.