Liveblogging Petraeus & Crocker Testimony - Senate Armd Svcs Committee

General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker gave their brieifing before the Armed Svcs Committee today, concluding at 2 p.m. They will brief Foreign Relations Committee this afternoon. My contemperanous notes of the questions and answers are below the fold. Both Petraeus and Crocker gave opening statements. General Petraeus's statement is here, and Ambassador Crocker's before the Armd Svcs Committee is here, and before the Foreign Relations Committee (not sure if they differ)is here.


Highlights and summary of the questions and answers:

1. Basra offensive was not a defeat for Maliki. The Iraqi government now control the ports in Basra and is conducting on-going operations in that city aimed at the "special groups."

2. The Iraqi military performance in Basra was uneven, partly becasue of poor planning. The Iraqi military successfully quelled Sadrist uprisings in all other cities.

3. Maliki has gained significant stature among all Iraqis for his willingness to take on all criminal elements, irrespective of their sect.

4. The biggest problem now is Iran's attempts to "Lebanonize" Iraq, creating an Iraqi "Hezbollah" militia beholden to Iran that dominates the Shia portion of Iraq. Iran's training, funding and arming of "special groups" culled from Sadr's Mahdi Militia is the primary vehicle for that strategy. Within the past month, this has become both completely clear and a point of great concern for the Iraqi government.

5. Taking control of Iraq remains al Qaeda's ultimate goal, and that if we leave Iraq precipitously, we can expect al Qaeda to make a resurgance and we can expect Iran to make a determined effort to dominate the Shia portion of Iraq. Allowing this to happen would drastically effect our national security.

6. As to diplomacy, Iran is refusing to take part in talks about Iraqi security and Iran's proxy war. Each time a meeting is scheduled, the Iranian side cancels due to scheduling conflicts. Another meeting is scheduled for next week.

7. Petraeus believes that the ultimate key to defanging membership in the Mahdi militia is getting employment prospects for the young and often illiterate members of the militia.

8. Sadr's popularity was predicated on Iraqi and Arab nationalism. His ever closer relationship with Iran and the gangsterism of his militia has severely damaged any nationalist appeal he might have had. There is wide support for disarming and disbanding his militia.

9. Somebody check to see if Evan Bayh has recovered yet. If you did not see it, Bayh was the last person to question Petraeus and Crocker, he approached them like a laywer on cross examination, and he got his ass handed to him in a very respectful way. Specifically:

Petraeus - Explicitly says that he does not agree with Bayh that leaving Iraq precipitously would be reasonable.

Crocker - bin Laden recently referred to Iraq as the perfect base for al Qaeda - Bayh cuts him off and says that we should not believe bin Laden because what he may be saying is disinformation.

Crocker - putting pressure on Iraqis to do more by threatening to leave and pull out is counterproductive. If they sense that U.S. is wavering and looking to pull out, than the Iraqis will be moving away from compromise as they consider what comes after the U.S. pulls out.

Petraeus - does not agree that we are creating more terrorists globally by our actions in Iraq. Takes issue with Bayh on his assessment that bin Laden may be giving us disinformation. Further, it is not responsible to say that we will draw down troops on a date certain. It must be conditions based if it is to be done while sustaining the progress made to date.


Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing

9:35 - Carl Levin opens with a 5 minute speech - the surge has failed because of Basra, there has been no reconcilliation (based on a 5 month old State Dept. paper) and we can only win by retreating

Petraeus Opening Remarks:

Iranian proxies are the greatest threat long-term to Iraqi security

Al Qaeda is successfully being dealt with, and this is in and outside of Iraq.

Really hammering home about the Qods Force and their meddling in Iraq.

Some forces performed well in Basra, others did not. Many of the problems were staff problems of command and control, etc.

Will draw down surge forces by the summer, but any further reduction may jeapordize security gains and must be done on a case by case basis.

Crocker Operning Remarks:

Progress being made with reconcilliation and political development.

Iraq's parliament has gone from frozen to much more fluid and willingness to compromise

The decision to take on Mahdi militia in Basra was important to reconcilliation. Sunni, Shia and Kurd.

The surge has worked. We are in the midst of developing an agreement for long term contacts - the SOFA agreement.

Iran has a choice to make.

Success in Iraq is quite possible. If we stop our support for Iraq, than it will fail and al Qaeda and Iran will move in to fill the vacuum.

Levin Questions:

- Asks Petraues to commit to hard numbers of troops to draw down. Petraeus doesn't bite.

- Levin asks whether the Basra operation could have been better planned. After Petraeus agree, Levim implies U.S. forces were called to support in large numbers because of Iraqi incompetence.

Chapaquidick Ted:

What an utter asshole he is. Few questions, long on wind. He states that Maliki had no business going into Basra, they should only be fighting al Qaeda, and that this may lead to civil war. This man is clueless.

Warner:

Asks P and C whether the costs of Iraq have been and will be worth it in terms of providing greater security to Americans in the 50 states. Petraeus is prepared this time. Saddam is gone and a nascent democracy is in place. Petraeus answers yes.

Lieberman:

Petraeus says Iran is a serious concern. Qods force and Hezbollah are deeply involved in training and support of special groups. They are responsible for deaths of hundreds of Americans and thousands of Iraqis. Crocker says Maliki's decision to go into Basra has a very positive message - that they will go after extremists regardless of sectarian identity. Iraqi national security council is calling for all militias to be disarmed and warns against "outside" interference.

Inhofe:

Petraeus says detainee operations have been very successful, with training and education offered to all detainees. The irreconcilables are taken out of the general population. Low recidivism and 100 have asked to stay in detention to complete their studies and education.

Crocker says Iran is pursuing a "Lebanization" strategy to co-opt local Shia community. And says that Iran would step in if U.S. pulled out.

Petraeus says people in Basra gave much support to the recent offensive. Operations are continuing in Basra and increasing.

Jack Reed:

Petraeus - the ultimate key to defanging Mahdi militia is more of an employment problem just as with Sunnis.

Basra went much quicker than we expected.

Reed is another ass who asks a question, gets an answer, than spins it and moves on without allowing Petraeus to respond.

11:32

Sessions:

Crocker - Maliki's Basra offensive has drastically changed the tone of the other members of government and they perceive Maliki as a nationalist leader.

Petraeus - In Basra, Sadrists were armed by the Iranians.

Crocker - the militia actions were very unpopular amongst the Iraqi populace. Iranian influence is malign and destablizing, but is also limited by the Persian / Arab divide.

Akaka:

Let's lose the Iraq war so we can have an army not ready to fight in the next war. That is not quite what he says, but it certainly is what he means.

Collins:

She asks why Iraqi troops are not fully taking over operations and why they did not do so well in Basra.

Petraues - This is a process, not a light switch. We did not take the lead in Basra. Basra were criminal gangs and militias threatening the population. The U.S. provided air support.

12 p.m.

Nelson:

Petraeus - there has been important movements of top-down reconciliation in terms of de-baathification, amnesty, pensions, etc.

Another ass. Nelson is asking if the laws have been implemented yet. They were passed in the last month.

Crocker - they are moving in the right direction towards reconciliation.

Graham:

Petraeus - al Qaeda came to Iraq to establish an extremist caliphate in the heart of the Middle East, and the change of Iraqi Sunnis against al Qaeda is the most important event to date.

Crocker - Iran wants a Lebanization of Iraq. Iran is concerned about a functioning Shia democracy on its border. Iran and Syria are working against the creation of a stable Iraqi state.

Petraeus - The success of the surge has led to an improved Iraqi economy. If Iraq fails, it will effect our national security. Graham is trying to get Petraues to say the drawdown of a brigade a month will be a disaster. Petraeus doesn't bite and says he disagrees very tactfully.

Ben Nelson:

He wants to see Iraq bear more of the costs.

Thune:

Petraeus - The original cease fire was by Sadr militia that refused to disarm before going into Karbala. That was the general militia. Iran is clearly in control of the special groups. Iraqi political leaders have become very concerned about Iran and Qods Force in the past month.

Petraeus - Congress needs to fully fund Commander's Emergency Response program. Uses small funds in local areas to meet immediate needs. It is making a critical difference. Also being used to fund Sons of Iraq security personnel.

12:40

Clinton

At least she does not claim that she is having to suspend disbelief this time. Instead she is making a speech that reconciliation has been sufficient. She really does come off a witch. She is also trying to portray the SOFA agreement as requiring Congressional approval.

Petraeus - Maliki directed the rapid deployment to Basra because of the increasing problems with criminal gangs associated with the militia.

Martinez:

Crocker - Explains that SOFA agreements are essentially always executive agreements that do not determine troop levels, etc., and thus 79 of the 80 we have in force do not require congressional approval. The only one that has was the one with NATO becasue it contains security guarantees that were unique.

Crocker - U.S. has agreed to talks with Iran about the security situation. Iran keeps refusing to talk, claiming scheduling problems.

Petraeus - Iran is arming the special groups. We have detailed intelligence on this. There is clear evidence of direction, though it is unclear whether Iranians are providing on the ground leadership.

Crocker - Sadr touched a deep vein of Iraqi and Arab nationalism that he has since lost because of Iranian contacts.

Pryor -

Great question. Is Sadr setting himself up to be the Supreme Guide of Iraq?

Crocker - Crocker doesn't answer. Given the nationalist roots of the Sadr movement, Sadr is losing support.

Wicker -

He starts with a dig at Hillary - "it would take a major suspension of disbelief" to believe that the situation in Iraq has not substantially improved.

McCaskill -

Petraeus - repeating his testimony that Iraqi govt. has just kicked in $300 million to fund the Sons of Iraq.

Crocker - SOFA talks are underway.

Crocker - Maliki did not lose in Basra at all. Maliki now has broad ranging political support as a result of the Basra offensive.

Chambliss:

Petraeus - CER program allows U.S. to generate tremendous good will in local areas and provide much needed services long before the government can get into a cleared area to provide services.

Petraeus: In 2006, al Qaeda had a substantial presence throughout large areas of Iraq.

Crocker - Iraq and Iran have major economic ties.

Webb:

Makes the point that the Anbar Awakening began before the surge was announced. He does not ask whether the Awakening would have succeeded without U.S. support. Minimizes the threat of Iran and criticizes Bush for failing to open diplomatic ties with them.

1:35

Bayh:

Petraeus - Explicitly says that he does not agree with Bayh that leaving Iraq precipitously would be reasonable.

Crocker - bin Laden recently referred to Iraq as the perfect base for al Qaeda - Bayh cuts him off and says that we should not believe bin Laden because what he may be saying is disinformation.

Crocker - putting pressure on Iraqis to do more by threatening to leave and pull out is counterproductive. If they sense that U.S. is wavering and looking to pull out, than the Iraqis will be moving away from compromise as they consider what comes after the U.S. pulls out.

Petraeus - does not agree that we are creating more terrorists globally by our actions in Iraq. Takes issue with Bayh on his assessment that bin Laden may be giving us disinformation. Further, it is not responsible to say that we will draw down troops on a date certain. It must be conditions based if it is to be done while sustaining the progress made to date.