Intrade has Brown at 60 to 40 over Coakely . . . . This is all just too good to be true. Indeed, it suggests a win outside the margin of fraud. Update: A poll commisioned by InsideMedford.com puts Brown at a 9.6% lead. Though not from a well known pollster, according to Hot Air, it appears not merely legitimate, but probably more accurate than other polls given that the others oversampled Democrats.
Obama showed up in Mass. today to campaign with Coakley. He pulled in a significantly smaller crowd, about 1500, while on the other side of town, Scott Brown held a competing campaign event that had 3,000 indoors and another 1,000 out on the streets. Instapundit has the report and the pictures. It may well be that, as in NJ, Obama's coattails are short indeed.
The conventional wisdom is that if enough Democrats show up at the polls, Coakley can pull out a win. I wonder how true that is. Yes, Republicans are hyper-energized and independents are breaking strongly against Obama. But Democrats themselves seem none too happy being led by the Obama Pelosi clique. The PPP poll a few days ago showed 17% of Democrats planning to vote for Brown while an ARG poll put the crossover vote at 20%. A poll this evening from InsideMedford.com puts the crossover at 17%. Those are significant numbers anywhere - all the moreso in a state that last voted a Republican to the Senate decades ago. And those are likely voters. How many Dems will show their rancor by simply not showing up to the polls? Suffice it to say, the left is facing an internal revolt on a scale not seen since the fall of the Shah.
Apparently, even the White House is now leaking that they expect Coakley to loose. That makes the President's decision to spend his political capital campaigning for Coakley all the more incomprehensible. Perhaps the stakes were simply too high to keep him from making the attempt, or perhaps this is disinformation by the White House in an attempt to energize more Democrats to come to the polls Tuesday. In either event, after Obama's personal intercesion, if Brown does win by a wide margin, this will seem like Judgment Day for the Democrats. The White House can spin it all they want to - and Coakley did run a horrible campaign - but the facts are that this is true blue Massachussets, Ted Kennedy's seat, its a campaign run on national issues, and the future success of Obama's programs on the line. If Brown wins by a wide margin, there just is not enough spin in the world to stop every elected Democrat in Congress from suddenly suffering immediate onset incontinence.