Sunday, May 4, 2008

Iran In The Crosshairs

Approximately two weeks ago, in the post Next Moves In An Existential Chess Match, I laid out the case for attacking Qods Force sites inside Iran and, further, inferred from various facts that such an attack was in the planning stages. Today, the Times reports that U.S. is in fact in the planning stages for precisely such an attack.

This today from the Times:

The US military is drawing up plans for a “surgical strike” against an insurgent training camp inside Iran if Republican Guards continue with attempts to destabilise Iraq, western intelligence sources said last week. One source said the Americans were growing increasingly angry at the involvement of the Guards’ special-operations Quds force inside Iraq, training Shi’ite militias and smuggling weapons into the country.

. . . US commanders are increasingly concerned by Iranian interference in Iraq and are determined that recent successes by joint Iraqi and US forces in the southern port city of Basra should not be reversed by the Quds Force.

. . . Although American defence chiefs are firmly opposed to any attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, they believe a raid on one of the camps training Shi’ite militiamen would deliver a powerful message to Tehran. . . .

Read the entire article. As I posted here, PM Maliki recently asked the U.S. to refrain from making public its briefing on the extent to which Iran is conducting a proxy war inside Iraq until after Maliki sent a delegation to Iran with a demand that Iran halt its acts of war. That trip occurred over the weekend. If Iran does not cease and desist, I would expect a U.S. attack to occur in late June, after Generals Petraeus and Odierno assume their new commands. When the U.S. finally gives its public briefing on Iran's proxy war in Iraq, that will likely coincide with the attack. It is long overdue.

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