Saturday, June 20, 2009

When The Regime Will Fall



On one side are unarmed protestors, tired of being brutalized, suffering economic meltdown, and their sole means of making their voices heard, the Presidential election, stolen from them by a mid-level cleric posing as a Grand Ayatollah. Arrayed against them, a deeply corrupt clerical class that has gotten rich off the backs of their people. That regime is held in place by a security apparatus, some of whom in the IRGC are in the economic bed with the clerics. But most in the security apparatus are not. Only a portion of them will fight to the death to protect this theocracy. The regime will fall when the security apparatus begins to turn. That is what to watch for.

Having said that, this from the NYT today:

The Iranian police commander, in green uniform, walked up Komak Hospital Alley with arms raised and his small unit at his side. “I swear to God,” he shouted at the protesters facing him, “I have children, I have a wife, I don’t want to beat people. Please go home.”

A man at my side threw a rock at him. The commander, unflinching, continued to plead. There were chants of “Join us! Join us!” The unit retreated toward Revolution Street, where vast crowds eddied back and forth confronted by baton-wielding Basij militia and black-clad riot police officers on motorbikes.

Dark smoke billowed over this vast city in the late afternoon. Motorbikes were set on fire, sending bursts of bright flame skyward. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, had used his Friday sermon to declare high noon in Tehran, warning of “bloodshed and chaos” if protests over a disputed election persisted.

He got both on Saturday — and saw the hitherto sacrosanct authority of his office challenged as never before since the 1979 revolution birthed the Islamic Republic and conceived for it a leadership post standing at the very flank of the Prophet. A multitude of Iranians took their fight through a holy breach on Saturday from which there appears to be scant turning back. . . .

Dark smoke billowed over this vast city in the late afternoon. Motorbikes were set on fire, sending bursts of bright flame skyward. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, had used his Friday sermon to declare high noon in Tehran, warning of “bloodshed and chaos” if protests over a disputed election persisted.

He got both on Saturday — and saw the hitherto sacrosanct authority of his office challenged as never before since the 1979 revolution birthed the Islamic Republic and conceived for it a leadership post standing at the very flank of the Prophet. A multitude of Iranians took their fight through a holy breach on Saturday from which there appears to be scant turning back.

Maybe the next time, that Iranian policeman does not turn away from the protestors, but joins them. For there will come a point when those in the security apparatus see their kinsman being beaten, maimed and killed and say, enough is enough. When that happens, the evil that is Iran's theocracy will fall.

20 June 20098: The Regime Turns On Its Own People (Updated)
20 June 2009: Life, Death & Terrorism On Iran's Streets
19 June 2009: Countdown To High Noon
19 June 2009: An Iranian Showdown Cometh - Liveblogging Khameini's Speech At Friday Prayers
18 June 2009: Iran Update
16 June 2009: Iran 6/16: The Fire Still Burning, An Incendiary Letter From Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, State Dept. Intercedes With Twitter & Obama Talks Softly
16 June 2009: Breaking News: Vote Recount In Iran, Too Little, Too Late
15 June 2009: Iran Buys Time, Obama Votes Present, Iraq's Status Is Recognized
15 June 2009: The Fog Of War - & Twitter
15 June 2009: Chants Of Death To Khameini
15 June 2009: Heating Up In Iran
14 June 2009: Heating Up In Iran
14 June 2009: Tehran Is Burning; What Will The Iranian Army Do? (Updated)
13 June 2009: The Mad Mullah's Man Wins Again - For Now
15 April 2008: The Next Moves In An Existential Chess Match (Background On Iran's Theocracy)








4 comments:

dave in boca said...

Great Post, GW, and it appears that Khamenei has lost the Bazaaris, who back in '79 turned on the Shah when the security police killed 400 students using hot lead [instead of the rubber bullets the Shah had asked Jimmy Carter for the year before, but had been refused by a State Dept. "Human Rights" Asst. Sec'y named Patricia Derian, who wrote "No!" with her lipstick on thew memo concerning the Shah's rubber bullet plea.]

Back when I was an FSO & had good Arabist & Iranian connections, many stories came to me about James Earl's "human rights" activities biting the US foreign policy aims in the foot---imagine what would have happened had the Shah's police been equipped with non-lethal crowd control methods.

But it looks like Obama is content to suck his thumb and look like a deer in the headlights just like his feckless predecessor Jimmy.

Welcome Back, Carter!

GW said...

Welcome back Carter indeed. I have the feeling that this joker is doing little to nothing covertly to help out this protest, but we will see.

So what are you hearing from your old connections on the situation in Iran?

dave in boca said...

An FSO colleague who was a hostage back in the day told me before the elections that the mullahcracy & Ahmedinejad were as evil and corrupt as I imagined them to be [and mentioned that Ahmedinejad was one of the terrorist captors at the US Embassy who specialized in tormenting the three US female Embassy captives---a fact mentioned in the book "Guests of the Ayatollah" by the "Blackhawk Down" author].

My own personal take is that if Bibi Netanyahu does what DeGaulle did with Algeria & cuts a deal with the Palestinians, the entire Sunni Arab phalanx will contrive to align with Israel against the Shi'ite heretics [as they consider them.}

Israel hates and fears Iran more than the nearby Arabs {I was one of those detested State Dept. "Arabists"] and "the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

The Sunni Arabs think Iran has its eyes on not only Iraq, but Shi'ite majority Bahrain, just off the Saudi oil fields. Plus the islands the Shah seized back in the Seventies like The Tunbs, et al...

Iran wants to dominate the Middle East and if the US is seen as weak, secular Turkey might peel off [long shot] and get friendly, especially if Obama continues his hand-wringing and Hamlet routine.

MK said...

"When that happens, the evil that is Iran's theocracy will fall."

No bad thing, but what will replace it. As we know islam is the religion and sooner or later, muslims will be asked to behave like their prophet, a war monger and war lord.