Saturday, January 21, 2012

And The Winner Is . . . Newt Gingrich - Including Among Women, Independents & Those Voting On Electability

The polls are closed in South Carolina and the last kazoo has sounded. Fox projected the winner of the South Carolina Republican primary to be Newt Gingrich as soon as the polls ended. Update: The final tally is Gingrich 41%, Romney 27%, Santorum 17%, Paul 13%.

Just the fact of Gingrich's win puts a huge dent in the aura of inevitability Mitt Romney has attempted to paint since the start of the race. But it is the exit polls that are truly eye opening.

According to conventional wisdom, Romney is best suited to beat Obama, Gingrich is toast among women voters because of his past affairs, and Gingrich can't appeal to independent voters. The exit polls shred the conventional wisdom and, given that Gingrich won in virtually every possible demographic, ought to be giving the Romney camp nightmares.  This from the exit polls:

Women  voters:  Gingrich 38%, Romney 29%

Independents:  Gingrich 31%, Romney 25%

Very Conservative:  Gingrich 47%, Romney 19%

Somewhat Conservative:  Gingrich 41%, Romney 30%

Moderate to Liberal:  Gingrich 31%, Romney 34%

Age 18-29:  Gingrich 27%, Romney 16%

Age 30-44:  Gingrich 37%, Romney 19%

Age 35-64:  Gingrich 40%, Romney 28%

Age 65 and up:  Gingrich 47%, Romney 36%

Evangelicals:  Gingrich 45%, Romney 25%

Tea Party Supporters:  Gingrich 45%, Romney 25%

Income less than $50k:  Gingrich 40%, Romney 24%

Income $50k to $100k:  Gingrich 40%, Romney 24%

Income over $100k:  Gingrich 38%, Romney 34%

With a College Degree:  Gingrich 37%, Romney 31%

Without a College Degree:  Gingrich 42%, Romney 24%


Issues that mattered most:

Abortion:  Gingrich 27%, Romney 6%

Budget Deficit:  Gingrich 44%, Romney 23%

Economy:  Gingrich 40%, Romney 32%


Candidate Can Beat Barack Obama: Gingrich 51%, Romney 37%

Candidate is a True Conservative:  Gingrich 37%, Romney 2%

Candidate Has The Right Experience:  Gingrich 49%, Romney 34%

Candidate Has Strong Moral Character:  Gingrich 6%, Romney 19%

It is of note that Romney came into the SC primary with a 16 point lead ten days ago. He also outspent Gingrich by at least two to one on advertising in South Carolina. And yet . . .
Check back. I will be updating this post with an analysis of the issues Gingrich's victory raises tonight in the run for the Republican Presidential nomination.

A quick parting thought. How would you like to own the Malox concession near NRO headquarters at the moment. And a parting question, who do you think is drinking more scotch or popping more valium tonight, George Will, John Hinderaker, Jennifer Rubin, Ann Coulter or Kathleen Parker?

1 comment:

Rob said...

Hello GW,

I'm not encouraged by the results tonight.

Granted the press launched outrageous attacks on both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney - that's a given and they will Palinize whichever Republican gets the nomination.

But the simple fact is that in my opinion, Newt Gingrich lacks the basic character and demeanor to be president

The thing that bothers me most about Newt's Gingrich's history with both his ex-wives is not the adultery per se - stuff happens, after all - or the 'he said she said' stuff, but a simple, easily proven fact - in both cases, he started sniffing around, found someone willing to cheat with him and dumped wife # 1 and wife #2 once he found out they had become ill, #1 with cancer and #2 with MS.

To my mind, that's simply not how a decent man acts.And it says a great deal about how he would conduct himself as president.

Another thing - if you look at the Republican members of Congress he led, not only did they ask him to resign but few of them if any have anything good to say about him or his leadership.

That also says something to me.

My preferred candidate chose to sit things out in Wasilla, and I did a great deal of thinking about the GOP field, based more on what I consider character and fitness for office rather than ideologically or a chimera like 'electability'. All the stuff about the GOP establishment aside, there are a lot of reasons I consider Mitt Romney to be the most qualified and the best choice based on the field as it exists today.

If Newt Gingrich runs against Obama, I will vote for him, but with my nose held. I don't think he's what we need at this juncture.

Rob Miller