Friday, February 29, 2008

Focus On An Ever More Dangerous Iran

Iran is at war with the United States - and has been since 1979. It is well on its way to achieving a nuclear arsenal as the world dithers. It is a triumpahist and expansionist theocracy that places no value on human life. It is a theocracy that does not enjoy popular support within its borders, but shows no signs of weakening. Indeed, the opposite appears to be occurring as Iran slowly moves ever more under the domination of the the Revolutionary Guards. Below is a roll-up of some of the important about devleopments regarding and within Iran.


Britian now joins with our own spy chief, Mike McConnell, in disputing the assertion in the NIE that Iran's atomic weapon's program is for "civilian" purposes. Meanwhile, the most recent IAEA report was a "whitewash" by IAEA director, Mohammed El Baradei - a man very accurately described in a recent WSJ article as "a deeply political figure, animated by antipathy for the West and for Israel on what has increasingly become a single-minded crusade to rescue favored regimes from charges of proliferation." For example, there is this from Haaretz:

Referring to Iran's simulations and experiments with high-impact explosives and planned ballistic missile warheads, ElBaradei writes that there is no indication linking these activities to "nuclear materials." The IAEA cannot therefore reach a clear decision about the Iranian nuclear program's character, he writes. In other words, it is clear even to ElBaradei that Iran is concealing, misleading and ignoring the Security Council's resolutions, yet he refrains from stating explicitly that it is developing nuclear arms."

Read the article here. There is also a good article on this IAEA report at the Christian Science Monitor.

Between the perfidious acts of the author's of our NIE, the pro-Iranian agenda of the IAEA, and the economic motivations of our "allies," I do not see any chance to stop Iran from achieving nuclear arms unless Israel itself acts alone. Further tepid sanctions will clearly have no effect on a theocracy that sees itself supported by Allah against a weak and impotent West.

The fantasy of many in the West is that the deeply unpopular Iranian theocracy would fall internally to another revolution if it did not moderate. The chances of that happening appear remote at best. Indeed, if anything, the latest trends from Iran appear even more dire. It appears not that Iran's theocracy is transforming into a military dictatorship still retaining the ideological dynamic of Khomeinist Shiaism. This from AEI:

The clerical leadership in Iran has grown increasingly reliant on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to help it stave off internal pressure for political and economic reform and external pressure resulting from international concern over Iran's nuclear program. But as the IRGC gets more involved in domestic politics, the Islamic Republic is gradually morphing into a military regime, albeit one governed by theocratic principles. The March 14, 2008, parliamentary elections are likely to reinforce this trend.

Read the entire article.

On the issue of Iran's deadly activities in Iraq, and although I strongly disagree with his conclusion, Richard Dreyfuss, writing in the Nation, gives an fascinating look into the byzantine nature of Iran's involvement in Iraq. Where he goes wrong is in thinking that Iraqi nationalism will only reassert itself if the U.S. leaves Iraq. It does not take much in terms of arms and money for Iran's proxy forces to exert control through murder and mayhem if they are not contested by a stronger force - and the only force capable of that is the U.S.

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