Is This One Of The Reasons For The Desperation? (Updated)

The Real Clear Politics electoral college vote count today - McCain 227, Obama 217. That is a major shift. A sudden onset of incontinence is reportedly being treated at hospitals near Obama campaign offices throughout the land, and Depends are flying off the shelves. Things are going south for The One the Fallen Idol.

Obama's problem is no better illustrated than in Florida, one of the big battleground states. It seems the wheels are coming off of Obama's bus somewhere around Tallahassee. Obama has invested heavilly in Florida - to the tune of $8 million in ads over the summer and 350 staffers in over 50 field offices, the largest Demorcratic staff ever in that state for a Presidential race. McCain just began running ads there last week. The status - most polls show McCain at +5 to +8 and Obama seems on the verge of no longer being comptetitive in the Gator state.

This from the St. Petersburg Times:

Barack Obama could be on the verge of falling out of contention in Florida.

Despite spending an estimated $8-million on campaign ads in America's biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fueling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state.

Obama can still win Florida despite the polling gains McCain has made since naming Sarah Palin his running mate, and there is no sign Obama is pulling back in Florida yet. Far from it. Obama allies say he has about 350 paid staffers in the state and about 50 field offices, including in places not known as fertile ground for Democrats, such as Sun City Center, Lake City and Sebring.

But for all the attention to Florida from the Obama campaign, there's little tangible evidence it's paying off.

He is farther behind in the state than John Kerry was at this point in 2004, even though McCain began buying Florida TV ads only last week. By this time in 2004, the Bush-Cheney campaign had spent $13-million on Florida TV. In the rolling average of Florida polls compiled by the Web site RealClearPolitics.com, Obama has never taken the lead over McCain in Florida, and the latest average shows him behind by 5 percentage points. They were tied in early August.

Four Florida polls came out this week, with one showing a tied race, the others showing McCain leading by 5 to 8 percentage points.

"They've had everything going for them — momentum, enthusiasm, money, a complicit national press, a stiff wind at his back for a long time, and he hasn't been able pull ahead in Florida,'' said Republican strategist Alberto Martinez of Tallahassee. "I think Florida is one of those states that's taken off the board pretty soon, as they start focusing resources on states they can win." . . .

Read the entire article. It is possible for this to blow up on McCain. He needs to do well in the debates - I am more confident of his ability to do this than I am Obama's - and Gov. Palin needs to avoid any major gaffes that resonate, and that of course includes her debate with Biden. And Congress needs to avoid doing something stupid in regards to drilling - i.e., do not cave to Democrats. This is still too close for conservatives to be feeling confident, but its impossible not to start feeling a bit of optimism..