Wolf Howling: Ohio

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

The Force Was With Her

Hillary manages to stay in the race with big wins in Ohio and Rhode Island and a squeaker in Texas. Democrats take that next step closer to a contested convention.

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I must admit, I didn't think Hillary could pull out the major wins she needed yesterday to stay alive in the race. I wrote off Hillary because she couldn't run to the left of uber liberal Obama and because the fawning press and huge crowds Obama was drawing to his "post-partisan" neo-religious movement seemed unstoppable.

So what happened?

Hillary's "Who do you want to answer the phone at 3 a.m." advertisement was apparently quite effective. Obama is the weakest of all the viable presidential candidates on national security and this ad drove that point home while side-stepping Iraq. Exit polls showed that voters in Ohio said she would make a better Commander in Chief by 57% to 40%. Then there was Hillary's appearance on Saturday Night Live where the skits ridiculed the press corps for being in the tank for Obama. That clearly had an effect as the press corps finally begin to treat Obama as a candidate rather than the second coming of the messiah. Add to that the stumble by the Obama campaign on the NAFTA issue and it obviously made a huge difference, particularly in Ohio where Hillary far outperformed the pre-election polls.

And then there was another surprise. I listened to Obama's speech last night. There was a distinct lack of emotionalism in the crowd - which is the very fuel of Obama's candidacy - let alone the adoration I had heard from the crowds during his past speeches. The rhetoric was the same; the crowd response was not. It may just have been that the Texas crowd was depressed by the reality of an Obama loss in the state's primary. But if Obama has peaked and comes to be seen as another politician rather than a movement above the political fray, his problems are just beginning.

So what now?

Hillary stays alive and picks up a few more delegates than Obama. She is still far behind on the elected delegate count. The super delegates will come under ever more pressure to declare for one candidate or another. Hillary will continue to press for seating delegates from Michigan and Florida. And the Democrats will move ever closer to what has the potential to be a visciously contested nominating convention in late August. That is, at least, if Hillary can continue to cut into Obama's delegate lead. Wyoming (18 delegate - Democratic only) and Mississippi (40 delegates) hold their primaries in the coming week, with the next big prize, Pennsylvania (188 delegates), not scheduled until April 22.

Update: In what can only be considered a horrendous omen for Obama, Hillary, with her win in Rhode Island, has captured the mantle of "Hope."

Rhode Island State Flag:

(H/T: Instapundit)

Second Super Tuesday - 4 March 08

In play tonight, for the Republicans, whether McCain closes the door on the Republican nomination. For the Democrats, it's whether the battle continues or whether Obama is annointed. And the results are . . .

UPDATE: McCain clinches Republican nomination; Huckabee to formally withdraw.

UPDATE: Clinton crushes Obama in Ohio

UPDATE: Fox News calls the Texas primary for Clinton in a close race.

Delegate Count

Republican: Needed to clinch nomination - 1,191

McCain - 1,095

Huckabee - 247

Democrats: Needed to clinch nomination - 2,025

Obama - 1,386

Clinton - 1,273

Democratic numbers do not include 842 super delegates

Delegates in play tonight:

Republican: 256

Democrat: 370

Ohio - Republican: 85 Democrat: 141

Texas - Republican: 137 Democrat: 193

Vermont - Republican: 17 Democrat: 15

Rhode Island - Republican: 17 Democrat: 21

7:29 - Vermont: With 1% of the votes in, McCain and Obama are projected the winners.

7:30 - Ohio: McCain crushing Huckabee, 72% to 15%; Dems too close to call

8:31 - Fox calls Ohio for McCain, 69% to 22% with 1% of the vote in. Ohio and Vermont put McCain over the top on delegates. Clinton has an early lead in Ohio. Obama's lawyers have successfully brought suit to have some precincts remain open til 9 p.m. in areas heavilly expected to favor Obama.

9:11 - Fox calls Texas for McCain, 56% to 32%, and Rhode Island, 59% to 26%. McCain sweeps. Huckabee announces his withdraw.

9:18 - With almost 50% of the vote in, Obama leads 59% to 39% in Vermont.

9:19 - Fox is calling Rhode Island for Clinton with 13% of the vote in. She leads 53% to 36%.

9:21 - Huckabee gives a gracious withdraw speech, complimenting McCain and calling the party to support McCain.

10:58 - Fox calls Ohio for Clinton with 55% of the vote, 58% to 40%

12:10 - Texas has in 64% of the primary vote for Democrats with Clinton holding a slight lead, 50% to 48%. No word on the Texas caucuses.

12:50 - Fox calls Texas for Clinton with 75% of the vote tallied. She leads 51% to 48%. The caucus results - with will account for a third of the delegates to be decided - are just starting to trickle in.