Wolf Howling: south korea

Monday, December 19, 2011

The Dictator Is Dead, Long Live The Dictator

The world is minus yet another megalomaniacal dictator with blood stained hands. According to news reports from North Korea, Kim Jong Il's 17 year reign as the Dear Leader ended when he died Saturday of natural causes. Over a year ago, Kim named as his successor his youngest son, 28 year old Kim Jong Un.

North Korea is a communist police state founded on a cult of personality so potent it would have made Stalin jealous. It is one of the poorest countries in the world, though it maintains a very large military and it has nuclear weapons. North Korea has historically been quite aggressive. In 1950, it invaded South Korea, prompting American intervention. When the war concluded two years later along roughly the same line of demarcation, North Korea refused to agree to peace with South Korea. North Korea has since engaged in numerous provocative acts aimed at its democratic neighbor to the south, including most recently the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel and the shelling of civilians on South Korea's Yeonpyong Island.

The below video gives a good four minute introduction to the nightmare that is North Korea

What will happen in North Korea now is anyone's guess. I lived in South Korea for five years, spending a significant part of that time stationed on the DMZ. I became very familiar with the intelligence surrounding North Korea, such as it was. When Kim Il Sung died, I did not think that Kim Il Jung, a much lesser figure, would be able to successfully consolidate power. And indeed, given how mecurial and unstable Kim Jong Il was, I thought there a high likelihood that he would attempt another invasion of South Korea as a last ditch effort to salvage his failing nation. Obviously I was wrong. Thankfully so, as renewed war in the Koreas would have a body count well into the hundreds of thousands, if not millions. It would make Iraq look like a cakewalk.

As it stands today, North Korea's economy, always weak, is in free fall with near starvation - the typical diet is 700 calories per day - being the daily reality of life. Kim Jong Un, at age 28 and with no military experience, is himself a much lesser figure than even his father. Moreover, North Korea's military has apparently gone into severe decline over the past decade because of the poor economy.

So what happens now? That is anyone's guess. But my money is against anything good happening any time soon.

Obama's First Real Challenge is North Korea (Updated)

North Korea seems determined to push Obama and South Korea as far as they can go. The threat from North Korea has gone from warm to hot - with a potential to get much hotter indeed. North Korea is acting bellicose, talking of a declaration of war. This after North Korea detonated a nuclear device, fired several missiles and reopened its nuclear plant in Yongbyon, all in violation of its treaty obligations. War is not outside the realm of possibility. Is Obama up to the task and what are his options to stop the North Korean nuclear program?

We last fought a declared war in Korea between 1950 and 1953. During one two week period in 1950, as the U.S. fought in the Chosin Resevoir area, we suffered 3,000 killed and 6,000 injured while killing 25,000 of the enemy. If we do go to war again in Korea, major engagements against the 1 million man standing army of North Korea would likely be about as bloody for soldiers but with the addition of countless civilian casualties. Indeed, war in Korea would make Iraq look like little more than a training exercise.

Update: The "Danger Room" at Wired.com posits similar bloodshed in any action defending against or attacking North Korea.

The terrain in Korea is mountainous. Korea is a web of small to medium valleys surrounded by steep and heavily wooded mountains whose apex is invariably a thin ridge. Larger valleys support dense population centers. War in this terrain is the opposite of war in the wide open Middle East. The latter is happy hunting ground for tanks and helicopters - blitzkreig warfare, if you will. South Korea, outside of the Chorwon Valley, is light infantry country where the warfare is slower and far more costly. Seoul, the capital of South Korea with over ten million inhabitants, sits within artillery range of North Korea. The conventional thinking was that it would likely come under heavy bombardment and chemical attack within the opening minutes of war in order to cause chaos and choke the roads to prevent reinforcement from the south. The heavily fortified DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) cuts across the 38th parallel, but the North Koreans have been tunnelling under that for half a century with an eye towards moving entire divisions in behind South Korea's front line defenses when war starts. Add to all of this that any such war has a real chance of going nuclear. It is a war we and the South Koreans would win, but not without tremendous loss. And there is the wild card of China. If war starts in Korea, would they again be sucked in on the side of their client, North Korea, as they were in 1950?

War in Korea has come close to reigniting on several occasions over the past half century, and cross border exchanges of gun fire, if not routine, still today occur with some regularity. Further, there have been deadly naval skirmishes between the two Koreas as late as 2002. Kim Il Sung often spoke of resuming war against South Korea, but his last memory of U.S. and R.O.K. forces up close and personal was getting his tail handed to him up around the Yalu River. His son, Kim Jong Il, the current leader, is a true megalomaniac and without his father's memory of the near calamity of 1950. I long thought Kim Jong Il so unbalanced and mecurial that he would force a war as soon as he took the reins of power. He didn't then, but he might now. China we know has been a large factor in staying North Korea's deadly hand over the years, but Kim Jong Il could always decide to roll the dice, particularly now as he is near the end of his life. The likelihood of this is influenced by how weak Kim Jong Il perceives the Obama administration to be.

Clearly, Kim Jong Il does not seem to impressed at the moment. North Korea, in violation of its treaty obligations, conducted a test fire of an ICBM in April. The response of the Obama administration and the UN was toothless. Thus, it is no surprise that only days ago, North Korea felt secure enough to reopen its nuclear plant in Yongbyon, engage in a test of a nuclear weapon, and launch still more missile tests. South Korea "responded to the nuclear test by joining the Proliferation Security Initiative, a U.S.-led network of nations seeking to stop ships from transporting the materials used in nuclear bombs." North Korea has in turn responded by characterizing South Korea's act as an "act of war," announcing its withdrawal from the 1953 Armistice Agreement that ended the Korean War, and promising a military response if any of its shipping is interdicted for the purpose of searching for nuclear contraband.

As Bloomberg notes, "North Korea routinely issues threats directed at the U.S., South Korea and Japan, warning of military retaliation if they continue to take actions that the country’s leadership characterizes as threats to its security." That said, this is a bit different. Never has, to my knowledge, North Korea repudiated the 1953 Armistice. Never has the U.S. and South Korea threatened to interdict North Korean shipping. And we are now at a point where it is obvious that endless talks and offers of assistance - going on since 1994 - will not sway North Korea from its nuclear ambitions. That said, it has not stopped Sec. of State Clinton from again making calls for North Korea to return to the obviously useless "six party talks."

North Korea holds the potential to do grave damage to us in two ways. One is to sell its nuclear and rocket technology, if not the weaponry itself, on the blackmarket to the highest bidders. We know that this has gone on already, such as in the recently destroyed Syrian nuclear facility. North Korea's second threat is actual war to conquer the South. One, if not both, are virtually assured if Obama does not take action. If his only response is through the UN and a call to resume six party talks, he will have utterly failed his first test and we will all, sooner or later, pay a price for it.

The idea of interdicting North Korean shipping is certainly one option, but I could see that one being not particularly effective and with a real chance of igniting war. China, which supplies North Korea with virtually all of its fuel as well as many other supplies, holds the key to getting North Korea to back down militarily and give up its nuclear ambitions. Under the current circumstance, China has had no motivation to really lean on North Korea other than to stop actual war. All of this leads to Charles Krauthammer's brilliant suggestion yesterday that, in response to the latest provocations, we convince Japan to join the nuclear club.:

That is a bold suggestion, but it is one that makes complete sense. And indeed, I can't see any other real options. This hot potato is now in the hands of Obama and Clinton. Does anyone feel confident that they will rise to the occasion?

World Class Snatch

. . . and world class clean and jerk.

Jang Mi Ran of South Korea set the world's records at the Olympics for snatch, clean and jerk, and combined weight in the women's super heavyweight (over 165 lbs) class. She lifted 308.6 pounds in the snatch. She lifted 410.1 pounds in the clean and jerk. Her combined total in the two lifts was a phenomenal 718.7 pounds.

Jang Mi Ran - Olympic Champion, world record holder and a whole lot of woman.