Showing posts with label credit default swaps. Show all posts
Showing posts with label credit default swaps. Show all posts

Friday, March 12, 2010

Demonizing Credit Default Swaps


If you listen to Obama and the left tell the story, the cause of our economic meltdown had nothing to do with Fannie, Freddie, fraudulent bond ratings, or - at the heart of all of these - race based market distortions introduced by Democrats and protected with the race card right up until Fannie and Freddie failed. The left's boogyman is Wall St. greed as expressed through transferring risk to Fannie and Freddie and the use of Credit Default Swaps. And this meme has been picked up in Europe as regards Greece's fiscal meltdown.

I blogged on Credit Default Swaps in a long post on the origins of our economic meltdown here. Credit Default Swaps are basically insurance - a way of managing risk. There is nothing untoward about them - though they failed during the mortgage meltdown because of mark to market accounting rules along with a big assist from fraudulent bond ratings.

Now, the left, and the Europeans, want to place substantial restrictions on Credit Default Swaps. It is suffice, it to say, an unwise idea. This from Prof. Bainbridge:

. . . This is just absurd.

Let's review what credit default swaps are and how they work:


Credit default swaps (CDS) are a form of insurance. Let's say you borrow money from me. I'm worried that you might default. So I hedge that risk by purchasing a CDS. If you end up unable to pay me back, the seller of the CDS will cover my losses. (The insurance analogy admittedly is not exact, but it suffices for present purposes.

As the Journal explained, banning the use of CDSs as a hedging device would have adverse consequences, just as banning insurance would:

Any attempt to restrict CDS trades could result in unintended consequences such as more risk for the financial system and higher borrowing costs for a range of nations and companies, some analysts and investors warn.

Restricting credit-default swap trading could push up borrowing costs for various nations if investors feel they have fewer ways to protect themselves if the bonds' prices decline. . . .

. . . As the Journal explained:

[A] study released Monday by Germany's financial regulator, BaFin, found no evidence that credit-default swaps have been used to speculate against Greek national debt. The study showed the net volume of outstanding credit-default contracts on Greek national debt has remained unchanged since January at about $9 billion. This compares to total Greek government debt of about $400 billion. "The market data do not show massive speculation in CDSs," the regulator concluded. . . .

There is much more. Do read the entire post. The bottom line is that CDS perform an important function, and to regulate them out of existence or to severely circumscribe their use is very likely to have unwanted consequences. And the last thing the world economy needs now is more volatility.

Of course, that is the rational way of looking at it all. For Obama, who has shown that he is quite willing to demonize anyone (Chysler secured debt holders) or anything (insurance companies) for political ends, rationality would seem to be of little consequence.

Read More...

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Wall St., Credit Default Swaps, Glass-Steagall, The Subprime Crisis . . . & Black Tuesday


"September 30 is the day when positions unwind and this is when the pain on Main Street will really start."

That dire prediction comes from Dinah Lord. Ms. Lord is a blogging friend who spent her formative years as a trader on Wall St. She has been kind enough to do a post explaining the role of deregulation of the finanicial industry with the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1998 as well as the credit default swaps that are at the crux of the subprime crisis. It fills in an informational gap that I have not seen anywhere else. This is mandatory reading for all taxpayers.

This from Ms. Lord:

. . . Starting back in 1995, the masters of the bond and credit market universe got too cute by half and structured a new and exciting financial instrument, the credit default swap and it's these credit default swaps that are the crux of the problem. The magnitude of the fallout from this hairy piece of "financial engineering" is staggering. Believe me, when I tell you that these things are so wrapped around the axle I don't think anyone knows who's got what.

Under a CDS, a bank originates loan to a company. A second bank (or other financial institution) can agree to cover the credit risk for the loan, by agreeing to make payment to originating bank if the company defaults on the original loan. The originating bank pays a small insurance premium to the second bank for assuming the risk of the loan.

Typically, payments under a CDS would only be triggered by the company’s failure to pay interest or principal on its debts due to bankruptcy or some other severe liquidity issue. But there are a host of intermediate or special cases that will doubtless provoke lawsuits when something goes wrong (CDS being a new market, it is by no means "recession-proof").

Credit default swaps were sold to the world as hedging transactions. Investors were told that they were simply transfers of risk, so that banks that made loans could transfer credit risks to insurance companies, which did not make loans directly, or to foreign banks that could not easily make loans in the U.S. market.

But they didn't work out that way...the real estate bubble burst and the mortgage market melted down, factors of life their models didn't take into account. Which brings us to another Gods of the Copybook Heading meets Gordon Gecko Greed is Good moment...the moment when "Wall Street" took over and expanded the volume far beyond what was required for hedging risk. The traders at commercial banks and insurance companies, freed from the constraints of Glass-Steagall by Bill Clinton era deregulation, jumped in with both feet.

After all, bonuses depend on the volume of business. Therefore, bank traders sold the credit risk of a loan not just once, but as many as 10 times. And they sold it not to solid banks and insurance companies, but to three solid banks, one solid insurance company, three dodgy brokers and three hedge funds. Then the traders went out and sold other CDS products that were not even related to actual loans on the books, but to imaginary indices of credit quality in the "widget" industry.

The credit risk of the system was hugely multiplied.

Instead of one $10 million credit risk loan, there are now ten $10 million credit risks on just one loan.

See what I mean about being wrapped around the axle?

Because of this axle, banks around the world are under tremendous pressure. They've even stopped loaning to each other which tells you how bad it is. Bond traders have been standing around with their hands in their pockets - no one is making trades. LIBOR is quaking under the weight of the stress and the short term paper market has pretty much seized up. Commercial paper is how companies finance their day to day operations and make payroll. September 30 is the day when positions unwind and this is where the pain on Main Street will really start. A flood of redemptions is preparing to swamp Hedge Funds. The US Mint has stopped production of gold coins due to soaring demand. Tonight's Asian market open will indeed be interesting. . . .

This isn't over by a long shot. Unless this can get things moving quickly (and have you ever known anything to happen quickly when the US govt is involved?) havoc will continue to wreak the credit markets, the relief rally in the stock market will be brief. Will smart money continue to stay on the sidelines? Will there be any smart money left? At heart, financial markets are about confidence in the system and confidence has been gravely shaken.

In other words, the jig is up.

How bad it will be is anybody's guess. . . . I believe we will all muddle through somehow.

I'm also a free market trader and believe that the market has to work this out. These type of bailout programs just tend to delay the pain and there is going to be some pain, my friends. I oppose the structure of this bailout on principle, so watching these government types preening and posturing in front of the cameras this weekend was like watching a train wreck in slow motion. They are beyond clueless. And infuriating. For Nancy Pelosi to call the House Republicans for not attending negotiations that they weren't invited to attend is an outrage. To see these Democrats stand up in front of the cameras and outright lie their a$$e$ off just shows you what we're dealing with.

. . . If you are interested in learning more, this piece . . . is a good place to start and this will provide you a window into what's been going on with the banking side of the equation. If you want to laugh and learn as you get up to speed on these magillas go here and check out this horse race analogy.) . . . Some of Dinah's other Wall Street [blog posts] can be found here.

And please be reminded that the fasten seat belt sign is still illuminated. It's gonna be a bumpy one.

The full post contains much more in the way of musings, and I highly recommend her blog to all readers.


Read More...