Not Quite Yet With The Fat Lady

After a narrow victory in Indiana and a blow-out loss in North Carolina, both being below expectation performances for Hillary Clinton, one would think the fat lady is warming up. But Jules Crittenden has the full round-up, and as he notes, those writing Hillary's political obituary are just not looking close enough. He sifted through the remains of last night's primaries with rescue dogs and pronounces this morn that he found Hillary, she is alive, compos mentis and still eye gouging. The WSJ also provides a thorough analysis.


___________________________________________________________

This from Jules Crittenden today:

TIME, Drudge note the media willing to declare Hillary dead. So what? I’d say this is a more relevant film clip. The only way she dies soon is if the superdelegates organize themselves to club her. Maybe I’m missing something. Don’t these people know about the eye gouging?

. . . She fighting this to the end, and nothing that’s happened yet trumps her November argument. If anything, Obama’s poor showing with working white Americans bolsters it.

Read the whole post and his thoughts on the various other commentaries. Of particular note are JC's concluding remarks on a post by Don Surber:

Surber on whether white voters will go for Obama in November. No, he says, but it isn’t about race. Well, not entirely, though it is ironic that thanks to the black racism on Obama’s spiritual guide, the first viable black presidential candidate actually does have a race problem. Surber also thinks Obama’s the one and already misses Hillary. Oh ye of little faith … how can we miss her when she has no intention of going away?

The WSJ, which JC also sites, writes:

With his victory in North Carolina on Tuesday, Barack Obama took a giant step toward the Democratic presidential nomination. The irony is that he is doing this just when Hillary Clinton has finally exposed his potential weaknesses as a general election candidate.

The Illinois Senator can certainly breathe easier having dodged a loss in North Carolina, where he once held a big lead. As usual, he swept the under-30 crowd as well as the educated, upscale liberals in the central part of the Tar Heel State. . . .

But his victory in North Carolina depended heavily on his overwhelming (91%) share of the black vote, which made up about a third of the primary electorate. Mrs. Clinton won 61% of white Democrats in North Carolina, according to the exit polls, and 65% of white Democrats in Indiana. Mrs. Clinton also broke even among independents. Clearly Mr. Obama's early promise of a transracial, postpartisan coalition has dimmed as the campaign has progressed and voters have learned more about him.

The controversy over his 20-year association with his pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, seems to have hurt in particular. About half of North Carolina Democrats said the Wright issue mattered to them, and they voted decisively for Senator Clinton. The former First Lady won easily among late deciders, which also suggests that Mr. Obama's rocky recent performance has cost him. And the Chicagoan continued his poor showing with rural voters, especially in white Democratic counties in Indiana. These are the voters John McCain will have a chance to get in November.

These are also the data points the Clinton campaign will now press with the superdelegates who will ultimately decide this contest. But the bitter political fact for the New York Senator is that her late-game rally may not matter. To nominate Mrs. Clinton now, party insiders would have to deny the nomination to the first African-American with a serious chance to be President, risking a revolt among their most loyal voting bloc.

The truth is that most Democratic pros are so confident of their November prospects that they believe either Senator will defeat John McCain. . . .

Judging by his victory speech last night, the Illinois rookie has already begun to pivot to a general election strategy. He tried to address his vulnerabilities on national security and cultural values. And he began to recast his personal story as an affirmation of the American dream – in contrast to the image presented by his much-delayed condemnation of Rev. Wright's anti-American conspiracy theories.

One habit of modern Democrats is that they tend to fall in love with candidates who are both unknown and untested. The superdelegates will now have to decide if Mr. Obama is more like the Jimmy Carter of 1976 – or Michael Dukakis.

Read the entire article. Hillary is not dead yet, but her wounds appear mortal to me. Her choice for the Kentuck Derby was incredibly metaphorical. She is coming in a clear second to Big Brown and the only way this will end is when she is euthanized on the track by her party once the race is finished.

Read More...

Summary only...

The Force Was With Her

Hillary manages to stay in the race with big wins in Ohio and Rhode Island and a squeaker in Texas. Democrats take that next step closer to a contested convention.








______________________________________________________

I must admit, I didn't think Hillary could pull out the major wins she needed yesterday to stay alive in the race. I wrote off Hillary because she couldn't run to the left of uber liberal Obama and because the fawning press and huge crowds Obama was drawing to his "post-partisan" neo-religious movement seemed unstoppable.

So what happened?

Hillary's "Who do you want to answer the phone at 3 a.m." advertisement was apparently quite effective. Obama is the weakest of all the viable presidential candidates on national security and this ad drove that point home while side-stepping Iraq. Exit polls showed that voters in Ohio said she would make a better Commander in Chief by 57% to 40%. Then there was Hillary's appearance on Saturday Night Live where the skits ridiculed the press corps for being in the tank for Obama. That clearly had an effect as the press corps finally begin to treat Obama as a candidate rather than the second coming of the messiah. Add to that the stumble by the Obama campaign on the NAFTA issue and it obviously made a huge difference, particularly in Ohio where Hillary far outperformed the pre-election polls.

And then there was another surprise. I listened to Obama's speech last night. There was a distinct lack of emotionalism in the crowd - which is the very fuel of Obama's candidacy - let alone the adoration I had heard from the crowds during his past speeches. The rhetoric was the same; the crowd response was not. It may just have been that the Texas crowd was depressed by the reality of an Obama loss in the state's primary. But if Obama has peaked and comes to be seen as another politician rather than a movement above the political fray, his problems are just beginning.

So what now?

Hillary stays alive and picks up a few more delegates than Obama. She is still far behind on the elected delegate count. The super delegates will come under ever more pressure to declare for one candidate or another. Hillary will continue to press for seating delegates from Michigan and Florida. And the Democrats will move ever closer to what has the potential to be a visciously contested nominating convention in late August. That is, at least, if Hillary can continue to cut into Obama's delegate lead. Wyoming (18 delegate - Democratic only) and Mississippi (40 delegates) hold their primaries in the coming week, with the next big prize, Pennsylvania (188 delegates), not scheduled until April 22.

Update: In what can only be considered a horrendous omen for Obama, Hillary, with her win in Rhode Island, has captured the mantle of "Hope."

Rhode Island State Flag:



(H/T: Instapundit)

Read More...

Summary only...