Showing posts with label national debt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label national debt. Show all posts

Sunday, March 22, 2015

The Watcher's Council Forum: Is America In Decline? Why Or Why Not?



Each week, the Watcher's Council hosts a forum, in addition to holding a weekly contest for best posts among the members of the Council. I have been kindly invited to respond to this week's question. Update: The forum is up, with several different answers to the question, all worth your read.

It is beyond question that our nation is in decline. We stand mired in historic levels of debt, yet massive deficit spending by Congress continues unabated. Regulations are being pumped out by unelected bureaucrats at record pace, working fundamental changes to our nation that could never pass Congress. Yet Congress sits by and the odd Congresscritter only occasionally impotently complains in speeches. Medicare and Social Security threaten to bankrupt our nation in the foreseeable future unless reformed, yet Congress does not just nothing, but manages to compound the problems with Obamacare. We have a tyrannical President who unconstitutionally threatens our country's make up by unilaterally legislating the legalization of millions of illegal aliens, while an utterly supine Congress with the sole Constitutional authority to legislate is allowing this to happen. It appears that elections for either party no longer matter to change our national trajectory.

Our Supreme Court today sits as a sort of unelected Politburo deciding that the Constitution means whatever five of them want it to mean based on their whim of the day. What was supposed to be the least dangerous of our co-equal branches of government is now arguably the most dangerous. The left is using our military as a laboratory for insane social experiments, the worst being to allow women into front line combat units, something that can only be accomplished in any number by lowering the physical standards. And that does not even begin to consider the impact on unit cohesion. Space exploration as well as virtually everything to do with space is without doubt of incredible importance to our future. Moreover, it is vital that we continue to develop space defense technology to protect our many satellites upon which modern life is dependant. Space technology is an area where we have still a distinct advantage, yet Obama has killed our nation's space program. Lastly, our national security posture hasn't been this bad since the 1930's.

I think it would be fair to say we are not merely in decline, but rapidly approaching key tests during our descent that will determine our future. It is hard to say which will be the first key test, whether it will come in the form of severe economic stress as the interest rates rise on our outrageous national debt, or whether it will come in the choking of our economy by ever more far reaching regulations by the EPA and FCC, or whether it will come from foreign countries energized by our growing weakness. The only sure lesson of history is that the tests will come.

Our nation has proven resilient in the past, but in the past, we've been much better positioned to respond to challenges. In the past hundred years, we've faced the Depression and come through. But that was at a time when our massive excess industrial capacity sat untapped and we started from a point with no major deficits. We faced WWII and came through. But that was at a time when the other allied nations had strong militaries of their own, not the empty shells that they now have. We faced down the Soviet Union, but that was at a time when our military was at the pinnacle of its strength, not now when Obama has starved our military for funding, going so far as to change our national security posture from being able to fight two simultaneous wars to one. That was a change not based on any threat assessment, but rather a desire to divert the savings to his various welfare programs. And he has likewise overseen the devolution of our nuclear capacity -- something that has maintained the peace in Europe for 75 years -- because of his insane, utopian vision of a world without nuclear weapons. Somebody, please inform the North Koreans, the Iranians, and the other Middle Eastern nations now initiating their own nuclear weapons programs.

Bookworm Room has added her own cogent thoughts to this list above. To paraphrase, in the past, when challenges faced our nation, we had a fundamental love of country to join us. Our immigrants once came for the freedom to seek wealth. Yet today, "our immigrants come for handouts that they then wire to the tyrannies back home." And worst of all:

Our young people once thought that we brought freedom to the world; our young people now believe that we are evil. When a nation's young people think that they and their country are unworthy, the ink is on the suicide pact. And when they've been trained to think of themselves as fragile victims, you can bet that the first drop of blood spilled will seal that pact.

It is hard for me to believe that America will retain a dominant position in the world beyond another decade or so. Perhaps this would not matter if America was intrinsically evil as the left seems to think, or if those who would replace us were benign. The reality is that no nation is strong enough to take our place at the moment, and those who will vie for influence do not have a history of rule by law or democracy. Nor do I believe there is any leader we could elect in 2016 that could restore the Constitutional systems that have allowed us to flourish for much of the past two centuries.

That said, perhaps in response to the key tests and trials foreseeable on our national horizon, things might change. My pessimism is moderated by the reality that history has few straight lines, and great nations have rarely gone gentle into that good night. But my pessimism is made worse by the knowledge that, with key tests and trials come great costs in gold and in blood. The question is not whether America is in decline, but how low we must fall before we even begin to recover, and at what cost?





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Friday, December 21, 2012

What Is Wrong With Republicans???

Who didn't watch with amusement yesterday as Republicans refused to vote for Boehner's bill to make permanent the Bush era tax cuts for all Americans earning less than $1 million per year. It would seem that the Keystone Cops are alive and well in the Republican wing of Congress. As Gerard van der Luen of American Digest is wont to say, "Republicans, they thirst for death."

Republicans have precisely zero leverage on tax rates. Come January 1, all of the Bush era tax cuts expire and all the tax rates will go up automatically - and quite unfairly, Republicans will get the blame. Moreover, the centerpiece of Obama's tax plan was to raise tax rates on "the rich." It is time to give the people what they voted for. If four years of gross economic incompetency wasn't enough to convince the electorate, well, let's let them have the next four years good and hard indeed. Obviously, more lessons are needed.

In this instance, Republicans prepared to die on the hill of stopping higher taxes is much like Picket's charge - a suicidal act that did nothing beyond sealing the doom of Lee's Army of the Potomac. One of the first rules of warfare - don't reinforce failure, reinforce success - or at least where you have the greatest likelihood of success.

Where House Republicans hold absolute power is on spending. Give Obama whatever tax increase he wants, but then shut down the government over the budget ceiling. Moreover, refuse to pass anything but a life support budget until all sides agree on - and pass into law - a grand bargain that in real terms, sans the usual accounting gimmicks, will decrease the debt by 25% over the next four years.

Debt is where the real issue lies. Sure, Obama's tax increases will hurt the economy - but they won't kill it. Our continued accumulation of debt will. Between Obama's world record profligate spending and Fed Chairmen Ben Bernanke, who is keeping our printing presses spinning at a record pace, they are placing our nation in mortal peril. Obama and Bernanke are setting the stage for runaway inflation and the devaluation of the dollar. That is where Republicans need to draw the line in the sand - this far, and no further.





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Friday, September 7, 2012

DNC Bookends: $16 Trillion In Debt & A Bad Jobs Report

The Democrat's convention, characterized by Mitt Romney as a "celebration of failure," now has brutal reality for its bookends.

First there was the debt clock ticking over $16,000,000,000,000 on day one of the DNC. It is another step on the march to becoming Greece. Any question of the import of this was highlighted by the Democrat's refusal to acknowledge this dangerous milestone at any point during their convention.

And less than 12 hours after Obama's speech asking for reelection on his vision rather than his performance, the BLS has released a very bad August jobs report. It shows only 96,000 new jobs created. Note that it takes our economy creating approximately 150,000 new jobs each month just to keep us treading water, so this actually puts us on a downward trajectory.

And worse, even the 96,000 new jobs were dwarfed by the report that 368,000 people stopped looking for work. Because of that, the U-3 unemployment number was reported by BLS as 8.1% - an illusory .2% "improvement" over last month. But as AEI points out, "if the labor force participation rate was the same as when Obama took office in January 2009, the unemployment rate would be 11.2%." Further, "if the participation rate had just stayed the same as last month, the unemployment rate" would have risen to "8.4%." It also means that the number of work age Americans working or actively looking for work is now at its lowest point in 30 years.



Image via Instapundit.

Mitt Romney responded to the jobs report:

If last night was the party, this morning is the hangover. For every net new job created, nearly four Americans gave up looking for work entirely. This is more of the same for middle class families who are suffering through the worst economic recovery since the Great Depression. After 43 straight months of unemployment above 8%, it is clear that President Obama just hasn’t lived up to his promises and his policies haven’t worked. We aren’t better off than they were four years ago. My plan for a stronger middle class will create 12 million new jobs by the end of my first term. America deserves new leadership that will get our economy moving again.

This election is shaping up to be a real world referendum on post modernism versus objective reality that is there for all to see. What makes this so different then past years is that only willful ignorance can allow one to ignore the objective reality.







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Tuesday, March 20, 2012

National Debt Has Increased More Under Obama Than In Bush's Eight Year Presidency

From CBS News:

The National Debt has now increased more during President Obama's three years and two months in office than it did during 8 years of the George W. Bush presidency. The Debt rose $4.899 trillion during the two terms of the Bush presidency. It has now gone up $4.939 trillion since President Obama took office.

And to think that I used to bitterly complain that Bush and the Republicans were spending our wealth like drunken sailors. Obama and the spendthrifts of the left make them look frugal and sober.

Update: Heh. Over at Crooks & Liars, they claim that the CBS report is "BS" - without contesting the numbers. Moreover, they damn the CBS reporter who made this observation to working at . . . Fox, of course. Lol. It is an exercise in intellectual dishonesty that deserves to be read.







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Saturday, January 7, 2012

Stossel: Our Economic Situation In Simple English



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Tuesday, January 4, 2011

$14,025,215,218,708.52


The national debt tops $14 trillion. A grim milestone indeed.

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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Tuesday Links


We now resemble the socialist bureaucracy of the EU, with major policy decisions being made by unelected bureaucrats - and indeed, policy decisions that contravene the will of our elected representatives. Apparently, the Republicans plan to fight this with the Congressional Review Act of 1996 (thanks for that one, Newt), which will allow them an opportunity to force a vote on approval of the most outrageous recent acts. I would argue, though, that democracy demands that there should be congressional review and approval of all regulations before they become binding.

Related - This from Thomas Sowell: "The Constitution of the United States begins with the words "We the people." But neither the Constitution nor "we the people" will mean anything if politicians and judges can continue to do end runs around both."

From Powerline: Like NPR, PBS is a media adjunct of the Democratic Party.

Larry Bell at Forbes ponders: "as 2010 draws to a close, do you remember hearing any good news from the mainstream media about climate? Like maybe a headline proclaiming "Record Low 2009 and 2010 Cyclonic Activity Reported: Global Warming Theorists Perplexed"? Or "NASA Studies Report Oceans Entering New Cooling Phase: Alarmists Fear Climate Science Budgets in Peril"?


The major accomplishment of the 111th Congress - increasing our national debt by nearly 60%, in excess of $5 trillion, in 4 years. That is, as Q&O points out, "more debt added than any other Congress in the history of our country and more than all of the first 100 combined."

While the EPA goes to war with Texas over its power grab to regulate plant food, and while the same EPA continues its war on our energy infrastructure, the "former president of Shell Oil, John Hofmeister, says Americans could be paying $5 for a gallon of gasoline by 2012."

Fareed Zakaria is shilling for a VAT tax in America. Its clear that he is approaching this from a statist viewpoint, but I happen to agree that we should adopt a VAT or sales tax, with the caveat that it would replace the insane tax system we have now that punishes wealth creation and savings.

Mark Helprin on "America's Dangerous Rush to Shrink Its Military Power." This has long been a wet dream of the far left - and they are pushing it hard. If they succeed, you can rest assured that we will eventually pay the price for it in blood and gold.

From Counting Cats, looking at the left's stranglehold on education in the West and its ramifications: "Only by attacking the enemy at the source of their power (by breaking the iron grip they have over schools and universities) can the cultural and political power of the left really be broken. Unless that happens, no amount of economic or social failure will really undermine the doctrines of “leftism”. In short - civilization will fall, and a new Dark Age will start. A Dark Age on a global (not just European) scale."

It is eminently clear that Barack Hussein Obama's views of Islam have been colored by what he experienced when he was living in Indonesia. But with the influx of Islamic radicals, Indonesia as a model of religious tolerance is a thing of the past.

In NYC, the best laid plans of mice and men go awry when the Mayor seems more intent on pointing fingers then lifting one to solve the problems brought on by 4 ft of global warming.

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Tuesday, July 13, 2010

The Buck Stops Where?


Since Democrats gained control of the entire Congress, our national debt has gone from $200 billion to $1.8 trillion and now is on a rapid upward trajectory. These same Democrats have added the mother of all entitlement programs with Obamacare - and that as Social Security is forecast to explode in the near future. So when Erskine Bowles, the Co-Chair of Obama's Budget Commission, makes a public appearance and states that our debt is a "cancer" that will "destroy the country from within," can there be any other response than "No kidding, Sherlock?"

The Constitution charges Congress with taxing and spending authority and the President with the power to approve or veto their appropriations; the Constitution makes no provisions for a Budget Commission. The budget commission was created by Obama so that he and the Pelosi-Reid Congress could shirk their Constitutional duties and try to disclaim responsibility for increasing taxation. Truman was famed for saying "the buck stops here." Obama and the Democratic Congress are demonstrating the polar opposite mindset. They are passing the buck as fast as their fat little fingers can move it. Is it any wonder that the Washington Post reports today:

Public confidence in President Obama has hit a new low, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Four months before midterm elections that will define the second half of his term, nearly six in 10 voters say they lack faith in the president to make the right decisions for the country, and a clear majority once again disapproves of how he is dealing with the economy.

I said two years ago that this joker would leave us pining for the good old days of the merely incompetent Jimmy Carter. I am feeling more and more prescient by the day.

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Saturday, March 27, 2010

The Road To Serfdom


As Gerard Van der Luen opined the other day, we are, quite possibly, the first generation of Americans who can expect to see our children lead smaller lives. It is wholly self-imposed.

The CBO reports that Obama's FY 2011 budget has our nation on a path to a national debt equal to 90% of GDP by 2020. In other words, Obama is directing our nation to ruin, in which the only ways out are confiscatory taxes on a level never before seen in our country, and / or hyper-inflation. Obama and the progressive left are spending us into a banana-republic status.

According to Charles Krauthammer, in his article yesterday at the Washington Post, Obama in fact has a plan - adding a Value Added Tax (VAT), essentially a national sales tax, on top of the income tax. This from Krauthammer:

As the night follows the day, VAT follows health-care reform.

With the passage of Obamacare, creating a vast new middle-class entitlement, a national sales tax of the kind near-universal in Europe is inevitable.

We are now $8 trillion in debt [Krauthammer has his numbers transposed - we are $12+ trillion in debt today]. The Congressional Budget Office projects that $12 trillion will be added over the next decade. Obamacare, when stripped of its budgetary gimmicks -- the unfunded $200 billion-plus "doctor fix," the double counting of Medicare cuts, the 10-6 sleight-of-hand (counting 10 years of revenue and only six years of outflows) -- is at minimum a $2 trillion new entitlement.

It will vastly increase the debt. But even if it were revenue-neutral, Obamacare preempts and appropriates for itself the best and easiest means of reducing the existing deficit. Obamacare's $500 billion of cuts in Medicare and $600 billion in tax hikes are no longer available for deficit reduction. They are siphoned off for the new entitlement of insuring the uninsured.

This is fiscally disastrous because, as President Obama himself explained last year in unveiling his grand transformational policies, our unsustainable fiscal path requires control of entitlement spending, the most ruinous of which is out-of-control health-care costs.

Obamacare was sold on the premise that, as Nancy Pelosi put it, "health-care reform is entitlement reform. Our budget cannot take this upward spiral of cost." But the bill enacted on Tuesday accelerates the spiral: It radically expands Medicaid (adding 15 million recipients/dependents) and shamelessly raids Medicare by spending on a new entitlement the $500 billion in cuts and the yield from the Medicare tax hikes.

Obama knows that the debt bomb is looming, that Moody's is warning that the Treasury's AAA rating is in jeopardy, that we are headed for a run on the dollar and/or hyperinflation if nothing is done.

Hence his deficit-reduction commission. It will report (surprise!) after the November elections.

What will it recommend? What can it recommend? Sure, Social Security can be trimmed by raising the retirement age, introducing means testing and changing the indexing formula from wage growth to price inflation.

But this won't be nearly enough. As Obama has repeatedly insisted, the real money is in health-care costs -- which are locked in place by the new Obamacare mandates.

That's where the value-added tax comes in. For the politician, it has the virtue of expediency: People are used to sales taxes, and this one produces a river of revenue. Every 1 percent of VAT would yield up to $1 trillion a decade (depending on what you exclude -- if you exempt food, for example, the yield would be more like $900 billion).

It's the ultimate cash cow. Obama will need it. By introducing universal health care, he has pulled off the largest expansion of the welfare state in four decades. And the most expensive. Which is why all of the European Union has the VAT. Huge VATs. Germany: 19 percent. France and Italy: 20 percent. Most of Scandinavia: 25 percent. . . .


It is not merely the national debt that Obama threatens. In the aftermath of the passage of Obamacare, the costs to major businesses has become immediately apparent. This from Powerline:

Caterpillar, which said Obamacare will cost it an additional $100 million in the first year; Medtronic, which warned that the new tax on its products "could force it to lay off a thousand workers;" and Verizon, which has told its employees that it "will likely have to cut healthcare benefits to offset the new costs."

Here's one more:

AT&T on Friday said it will record a $1 billion non-cash expense in the first quarter related to the newly passed health-care law, joining a growing list of large U.S. companies. ...

Among its many changes, the new health-care law eliminated a tax deduction that companies used to cut the cost of drug-benefit programs for retired workers. ... companies that still offer retiree drug benefits, mostly older industrial concerns or those with unionized employees, say the end of the deduction could force them to alter their benefit plans. In other words, they might curtail or even cancel them.

"As a result of this legislation, including the additional tax burden, AT&T will be evaluating prospective changes to the active and retiree health care benefits offered by the company," AT&T said in a filing with the government on Friday.

Hot Air also points to John Deere, which is taking a $150 million dollar hit for Obamacare this quarter. With an economy reeling, this is all nothing short of insanity. How long before the manufacturing sector - and to the extent they can, the service sector - begins to move ever more jobs overseas in an effort to stay competitive.

Bill Clinton ran the meme "its the economy" to success in 1994. Republicans need to take their cue from Bill as we head into the mid-terms and then into 2012, when the fate of our nation hangs on not merely throwing Obama and the left out of office, but consigning their legislative legacy and "progressive" ideology to the dustbin of history. This really is a second civil war.

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Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Overdrawn and Oversocialized


How in the world did Democrats ever convince our populace that they were better stewards of our economy than conservatives? Not even on the Republicans' worst days during the Bush administration - when I regularly accused the Republicans of spending like drunken Democrats - did I invision the destruction that a far left President with a far left majority in Congress could do. We have a president who is intent on turning our economy on a path to socialism, more or less following a post WWII British model - instead of getting our economy on stable ground, reducing the debt, and improving employment. The only people who can call themselves moderates or independants at this point in time in our country are people who are not paying attention or who are simply unable to grasp reality.

Now today, our national debt tops $12 trillion - the legal limit of our debt. Not doing anything to reign in costs, our far left overlords intend to raise the debt limit another $1.8 trillion and keep spending us into oblivion. When will this existential threat to our country be brought to heel? 2010 cannot come soon enough. Will Obama set us on a path of no return before then? Certainly inflation and higher taxes are coming. With little to any room for more borrowing, the last year of recession that we just experienced may yet look like good times in another year or two.

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Friday, May 15, 2009

And He's Just Figuring This Out Now?

This from the One:

President Barack Obama, calling current deficit spending “unsustainable,” warned of skyrocketing interest rates for consumers if the U.S. continues to finance government by borrowing from other countries.

“We can’t keep on just borrowing from China,” Obama said at a town-hall meeting in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, outside Albuquerque. “We have to pay interest on that debt, and that means we are mortgaging our children’s future with more and more debt.”

No kidding. So did he come just now come to this epiphany . . . Right after wracking up a world record national debt on borrowed money and driving our federal bond ratings to the brink of downgrading? As Instapundit quite pithily asked, "If Obama were trying to wreck America as a superpower, what would he be doing differently?"






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Thursday, May 14, 2009

Obama Card - Heh

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Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Math, Not Ideology


Much as I admire President Obama, I believe with something approaching certainty that his spending will bring this country to its knees. “Sustainability” is all the rage as a buzzword, but a $3.6 trillion budget is not “sustainable.” Doubling the national debt is not “sustainable.” Inaction in the face of $77 trillion in unfunded liabilities (Social Security, Medicare, entitlements) is not “sustainable.” This is math, not ideology.

- Author Christopher Buckley, writing at The Daily Beast

Mr. Buckley's assessment of our economic posture could not be more accurate when looking only at Obama's first 100 days. But Mr. Buckley's assessment hardly presents the full picture of the danger presented to our economy by the Obama drive to socialism. The numbers mentioned by Mr. Buckley are the tip of the Obama iceberg. Still on the horizon are Obama's plans to take over medical insurance and the student loan sector, both of which will add heavilly to our debt. And then there are the massive costs Obama seeks to impose on our economy using the canard that carbon dixoide is a pollutant. Obama's purpose there is to force us off oil and coal and into a utopian world of "green energy" No, Mr. Buckley's assessment, though accurate, doesn't even begin to contemplate the totality of spending and taxation planned by Obama.

And as an aside, you don't see many new oil wells going up, do you? Or what about offshore oil exploration? Coal fired plants? Nuclear power? Weren't these part of the centrist Obama campaign promises? But as should be obvious to all - even the most partisan of Obama supporters - Obama's campaign promises were not worth the paper upon which they were printed. Indeed, while Obama did and still does speak as a centrist, he governs from the far left.

As to energy, note that the global conditions that gave rise to $4 a gallon gas in the U.S. a year ago have not gone away. They are, like a cancer, merely in remission. India and China will recover and their thirst for oil will resume. Obama is only weakening our ability to withstand those inevitable costs as he steers us towards "green energy" that is wildly cost ineffective. In good times, we can subsidize those "green energy" boondogles and the population, looking at their energy bill, is none the wiser. But that will all come to a crashing halt when oil passes by the $300 a barrel mark on a trajectory ever upwards. God help us when that scenario hits, as it inevitably will.

We are rushing headlong into massive inflation at a minimum. You cannot print tons of money to without devaluing your currency. Little could be more well proven. And indeed, even China is no longer willing to buy Treasury securities. If what I heard on the news is accurate, than Obama plans to address this by having other U.S. government bodies buy the treasury securities, thus giving us the werewithall to fund spending through an accounting gambit in what can only be described as a government run fraud scheme. Such schemes inevitably fail, and catastrophically so. That coupled with the anti-business, pro-tax policies of the Obama administration hang like a sword of Damoclese over our economy.

I am daily amazed at the examples I see of the post modern left in action, claiming as reality whatever it is they want it to be. But math is not subject to such fantasy. Unfortunately for all us, two plus two always equals four.


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